arXiv:2504.20319cs.LG2025-04被引 3

用自动微分的集合卡尔曼反演,高效校准模型偏差并优化实验设计。

Bayesian Experimental Design for Model Discrepancy Calibration: An Auto-Differentiable Ensemble Kalman Inversion Approach

  • 通过自微分集合卡尔曼反演,实现高维模型偏差的梯度自由估计。
  • 在对流扩散问题中,成功识别出能有效校准模型偏差的最优实验数据。
  • 适合需要高维参数校准与实验设计协同优化的研究者使用。

贝叶斯实验设计(BED)为优化数据采集提供了严谨的框架,但实际应用常受模型偏差(即预测模型与真实物理系统之间的不匹配)影响,可能导致参数估计偏差。尽管已有数据驱动方法用于表征模型偏差,但其高维参数空间给贝叶斯更新和设计优化带来严峻挑战。本文提出一种基于自微分集合卡尔曼反演(AD-EKI)的混合式BED框架,提供了一种计算高效的梯度自由方法,用于估计高维网络参数的信息增益。该方法使BED中的效用函数可微分,从而支持标准梯度优化。在所提框架中,迭代优化实验设计,将低维物理参数的推断(由传统BED处理)与高维模型偏差的推断(由AD-EKI处理)解耦。针对模型偏差的最优设计可系统性收集信息性数据以实现校准。在经典的对流扩散问题中验证了该方法性能:依托AD-EKI的混合框架能高效识别用于校准模型偏差的有用数据,并稳健推断系统中未知的物理参数。此外,该方法也为元学习、结构优化等双层优化场景提供了高效可扩展的潜在解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Bayesian experimental design (BED) offers a principled framework for optimizing data acquisition by leveraging probabilistic inference. However, practical implementations of BED are often compromised by model discrepancy, i.e., the mismatch between predictive models and true physical systems, which can potentially lead to biased parameter estimates. While data-driven approaches have been recently explored to characterize the model discrepancy, the resulting high-dimensional parameter space poses severe challenges for both Bayesian updating and design optimization. In this work, we propose a hybrid BED framework enabled by auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman inversion (AD-EKI) that addresses these challenges by providing a computationally efficient, gradient-free alternative to estimate the information gain for high-dimensional network parameters. The AD-EKI allows a differentiable evaluation of the utility function in BED and thus facilitates the use of standard gradient-based methods for design optimization. In the proposed hybrid framework, we iteratively optimize experimental designs, decoupling the inference of low-dimensional physical parameters handled by standard BED methods, from the high-dimensional model discrepancy handled by AD-EKI. The identified optimal designs for the model discrepancy enable us to systematically collect informative data for its calibration. The performance of the proposed method is studied by a classical convection-diffusion BED example, and the hybrid framework enabled by AD-EKI efficiently identifies informative data to calibrate the model discrepancy and robustly infers the unknown physical parameters in the modeled system. Besides addressing the challenges of BED with model discrepancy, AD-EKI also potentially fosters efficient and scalable frameworks in many other areas with bilevel optimization, such as meta-learning and structure optimization.

实验设计模型校准贝叶斯推理反演方法

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