用混合模型提升降水预测精度,助力防灾与农业
Multidimensional precipitation index prediction based on CNN-LSTM hybrid framework
- 结合CNN捕捉局部特征与LSTM建模长期依赖
- 在印度浦那数据上实现6.752的低均方根误差
- 适合气象研究者与灾害预警系统开发者
随着全球气候变化加剧,准确预测天气指标对防灾减灾、农业生产与交通管理具有重要意义。降水作为关键气象指标,在水资源管理、农业生产和城市防洪中作用突出。本研究提出一种基于CNN-LSTM混合框架的多维降水指数预测模型,旨在提升降水预报精度。数据源自印度马哈拉施特拉邦浦那地区,涵盖1972至2002年共31年的月均降水量,反映该地区长期波动与季节变化特征。通过分析时序数据,该模型有效捕捉局部特征与长期依赖关系。实验结果表明,模型均方根误差(RMSE)达6.752,显著优于传统时间序列预测方法,在预测精度与泛化能力方面表现更优。本研究为降水预测提供了新思路。但模型处理大规模数据时需较高计算资源,且对多维降水数据的预测能力仍有待提升。未来可拓展模型以支持多维降水数据预测,推动更精准高效的气象预测技术发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With the intensification of global climate change, accurate prediction of weather indicators is of great significance in disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural production, and transportation. Precipitation, as one of the key meteorological indicators, plays a crucial role in water resource management, agricultural production, and urban flood control. This study proposes a multidimensional precipitation index prediction model based on a CNN- LSTM hybrid framework, aiming to improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. The dataset is sourced from Pune, Maharashtra, India, covering monthly mean precipitation data from 1972 to 2002. This dataset includes nearly 31 years (1972-2002) of monthly average precipitation, reflecting the long-term fluctuations and seasonal variations of precipitation in the region. By analyzing these time series data, the CNN-LSTM model effectively captures local features and long-term dependencies. Experimental results show that the model achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.752, which demonstrates a significant advantage over traditional time series prediction methods in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization ability. Furthermore, this study provides new research ideas for precipitation prediction. However, the model requires high computational resources when dealing with large-scale datasets, and its predictive ability for multidimensional precipitation data still needs improvement. Future research could extend the model to support and predict multidimensional precipitation data, thereby promoting the development of more accurate and efficient meteorological prediction technologies.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。