arXiv:2504.21795stat.MLcs.LG2025-04被引 2

用可解释的神经核函数建模医疗事件,平衡灵活性与可读性。

Balancing Interpretability and Flexibility in Modeling Diagnostic Trajectories with an Embedded Neural Hawkes Process Model

  • 在事件嵌入空间中设计灵活的神经影响核,替代传统参数化函数。
  • 在MIMIC-IV上表现接近顶尖模型,且在杜克儿童病历中获得临床可读结果。
  • 通过添加注意力层可主动调节解释性,适合需要可解释性的医疗场景。

霍克斯过程(HP)常用于建模具有自增强特性的事件序列,如电子健康记录(EHR)。传统HP通过参数化影响函数捕捉自增强机制,便于理解事件如何调制其他事件的发生强度。基于神经网络的HP虽更灵活、预测性能更优,但牺牲了可解释性,而后者在医疗领域至关重要。本文提出一种新型HP形式:将影响函数定义为事件嵌入空间中的柔性影响核,由神经网络实现,可处理大规模多类型事件序列。该方法比传统HP更灵活,比其他神经方法更具可解释性,并可通过增加Transformer编码器层显式权衡灵活性与可解释性。实验表明,该方法在模拟中准确恢复影响函数,在MIMIC-IV手术数据集上表现竞争力,并在杜克儿童诊断数据集上无需变压器层即获得临床有意义的解释。说明所提柔性影响核已足以有效捕捉EHR等数据中的自增强动态,意味着在不损失性能前提下可保持可解释性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected to understand how each event modulates the intensity of others. Neural network-based HPs offer greater flexibility, resulting in improved fit and prediction performance, but at the cost of interpretability, which is often critical in healthcare. In this work, we aim to understand and improve upon this tradeoff. We propose a novel HP formulation in which impact functions are modeled by defining a flexible impact kernel, instantiated as a neural network, in event embedding space, which allows us to model large-scale event sequences with many event types. This approach is more flexible than traditional HPs yet more interpretable than other neural network approaches, and allows us to explicitly trade flexibility for interpretability by adding transformer encoder layers to further contextualize the event embeddings. Results show that our method accurately recovers impact functions in simulations, achieves competitive performance on MIMIC-IV procedure dataset, and gains clinically meaningful interpretation on Duke-EHR with children diagnosis dataset even without transformer layers. This suggests that our flexible impact kernel is often sufficient to capture self-reinforcing dynamics in EHRs and other data effectively, implying that interpretability can be maintained without loss of performance.

医疗建模可解释性霍克斯过程事件序列

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