arXiv:2505.00225cs.LGcs.AI2025-05

用历史停电数据和更新序列,提升灾后供电恢复时间预测精度。

Predicting Estimated Times of Restoration for Electrical Outages Using Longitudinal Tabular Transformers

  • 基于纵向表格变压器模型,融合历史与实时更新的停电数据。
  • 在3万+次风暴停电事件中,客户满意度提升19.08%(p<0.001)。
  • 引入用户导向评估指标,增强模型可解释性与实际应用可信度。

随着气候变率增加,电力公司在自然灾害期间提供精确供电恢复时间预估(ETR)的能力变得日益关键。准确及时的ETR对用户在长期断电期间的准备至关重要,尤其在恶劣天气下。然而,当前电力公司多依赖人工评估或传统统计方法,难以实现可靠且可操作的预测。为此,我们提出纵向表格变压器(LTT)模型,利用历史停电事件数据及事件的连续更新信息,提升ETR预测精度。模型在三家主要电力公司三年间共34,000个风暴相关停电事件上进行评估,服务超过300万用户。结果表明,与现有方法相比,LTT模型平均使客户满意度影响(CSI)提升19.08%(p > 0.001)。此外,我们引入以用户为中心的回归评估指标,使模型评价更贴近真实满意度。通过可解释性技术,分析了序列更新在建模中的时间重要性,并识别出各特征对预测结果的贡献。该方法不仅提升预测准确性,还增强透明度,提升用户对模型的信任。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As climate variability increases, the ability of utility providers to deliver precise Estimated Times of Restoration (ETR) during natural disasters has become increasingly critical. Accurate and timely ETRs are essential for enabling customer preparedness during extended power outages, where informed decision-making can be crucial, particularly in severe weather conditions. Nonetheless, prevailing utility practices predominantly depend on manual assessments or traditional statistical methods, which often fail to achieve the level of precision required for reliable and actionable predictions. To address these limitations, we propose a Longitudinal Tabular Transformer (LTT) model that leverages historical outage event data along with sequential updates of these events to improve the accuracy of ETR predictions. The model's performance was evaluated over 34,000 storm-related outage events from three major utility companies, collectively serving over 3 million customers over a 2-year period. Results demonstrate that the LTT model improves the Customer Satisfaction Impact (CSI) metric by an average of 19.08% (p > 0.001) compared to existing methods. Additionally, we introduce customer-informed regression metrics that align model evaluation with real-world satisfaction, ensuring the outcomes resonate with customer expectations. Furthermore, we employ interpretability techniques to analyze the temporal significance of incorporating sequential updates in modeling outage events and to identify the contributions of predictive features to a given ETR. This comprehensive approach not only improves predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency, fostering greater trust in the model's capabilities.

电力系统时间预测表格模型可解释性

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