提出可跨气候区预测家庭用电的24小时模型,数据少也能准。
Validation of a 24-hour-ahead Prediction model for a Residential Electrical Load under diverse climate
- 基于全球通用框架,适配不同气候与数据量
- 爱尔兰和越南数据下误差仅8.0%和4.0%
- 适合缺乏历史数据的地区能源管理应用
准确预测家庭电力需求对可持续能源社区的高效管理至关重要。现有预测模型多依赖大样本且区域特定,难以适应不同气候与地理条件,尤其在历史数据有限地区表现不佳。本文提出一种面向24小时前瞻、跨气候区的通用电气负荷预测模型,验证其在爱尔兰(海洋性气候)与越南(热带气候)两地区的表现。模型仅用九个月数据即达高精度,且在两地夏冬、干湿季均表现稳定。与先进机器学习及深度学习方法对比,仿真结果表明该模型持续优于基准模型,在全量爱尔兰与越南数据集上分别实现8.0%和4.0%的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE),证明其在全球范围内的可靠性与适用性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate household electrical energy demand prediction is essential for effectively managing sustainable Energy Communities. Integrated with the Energy Management System, these communities aim to optimise operational costs. However, most existing forecasting models are region-specific and depend on large datasets, limiting their applicability across different climates and geographical areas. These models often lack flexibility and may not perform well in regions with limited historical data, leading to inaccurate predictions. This paper proposes a global model for 24-hour-ahead hourly electrical energy demand prediction that is designed to perform effectively across diverse climate conditions and datasets. The model's efficiency is demonstrated using data from two distinct regions: Ireland, with a maritime climate and Vietnam, with a tropical climate. Remarkably, the model achieves high accuracy even with a limited dataset spanning only nine months. Its robustness is further validated across different seasons in Ireland (summer and winter) and Vietnam (dry and wet). The proposed model is evaluated against state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning methods. Simulation results indicate that the model consistently outperforms benchmark models, showcasing its capability to provide reliable forecasts globally, regardless of varying climatic conditions and data availability. This research underscores the model's potential to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of Energy Communities worldwide. The proposed model achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 8.0% and 4.0% on the full Irish and Vietnamese datasets.
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