针对快递与取件混合作业场景,提升配送时间预测精度。
Learning to Estimate Package Delivery Time in Mixed Imbalanced Delivery and Pickup Logistics Services
- 用Transformer捕捉骑手时空轨迹与待派件的复杂关联。
- 在数据不平衡下,通过注意力机制学习取件模式影响。
- 结合路径预测与移动规律,适合物流调度系统落地应用。
准确估计包裹配送时间对物流行业至关重要,有助于合理分配任务并保障准时服务。在快递与取件混合场景下,骑手需同时处理大量配送和少量取件任务,而现有方法通常同等对待两者,忽视了取件因时间约束更紧,对骑手决策影响更大。本文面临三大挑战:1)多种时空因素交织影响骑手行为;2)取件数量少且时间要求严,难以建模其影响;3)骑手空间移动模式关键但研究不足。为此,提出基于Transformer的多任务模型TransPDT:首先利用Transformer编码器捕捉骑手历史路径与待派件集的时空依赖;其次设计模式记忆模块,通过注意力机制学习不平衡数据中的取件模式;还将路径预测设为辅助任务,并引入骑手移动先验规律。在京东物流真实工业级数据集上实验验证,模型表现优越。基于TransPDT的系统已在京东物流内部部署,每日追踪北京超2000名骑手、处理数十万件包裹。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately estimating package delivery time is essential to the logistics industry, which enables reasonable work allocation and on-time service guarantee. This becomes even more necessary in mixed logistics scenarios where couriers handle a high volume of delivery and a smaller number of pickup simultaneously. However, most of the related works treat the pickup and delivery patterns on couriers' decision behavior equally, neglecting that the pickup has a greater impact on couriers' decision-making compared to the delivery due to its tighter time constraints. In such context, we have three main challenges: 1) multiple spatiotemporal factors are intricately interconnected, significantly affecting couriers' delivery behavior; 2) pickups have stricter time requirements but are limited in number, making it challenging to model their effects on couriers' delivery process; 3) couriers' spatial mobility patterns are critical determinants of their delivery behavior, but have been insufficiently explored. To deal with these, we propose TransPDT, a Transformer-based multi-task package delivery time prediction model. We first employ the Transformer encoder architecture to capture the spatio-temporal dependencies of couriers' historical travel routes and pending package sets. Then we design the pattern memory to learn the patterns of pickup in the imbalanced dataset via attention mechanism. We also set the route prediction as an auxiliary task of delivery time prediction, and incorporate the prior courier spatial movement regularities in prediction. Extensive experiments on real industry-scale datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. A system based on TransPDT is deployed internally in JD Logistics to track more than 2000 couriers handling hundreds of thousands of packages per day in Beijing.
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