arXiv:2505.00402cs.LGcs.AI2025-05中稿 · CIKM 2023被引 13

针对疫情等异常情况下的快递准时率预测难题,提出时空注意力模型DeepSTA。

DeepSTA: A Spatial-Temporal Attention Network for Logistics Delivery Timely Rate Prediction in Anomaly Conditions

  • 设计异常时空学习模块,用RNN建模事件信息,避免异常数据丢失。
  • 在新冠疫情期间真实数据上,相比最优基线模型MAE降低12.11%、MSE降低13.71%。
  • 适用于物流异常场景的精准预测,尤其适合数据稀疏情况下的快递调度优化。

提前预测快递员的配送准时率对物流行业至关重要,有助于企业采取预防措施保障服务正常运行。这一问题在疫情等异常情况下尤为突出,此时快递准时率显著下降且波动剧烈。现有研究较少关注物流场景;许多针对异常情况的预测方法未能显式建模异常事件,将外部因素与普通特征同等处理,导致大量信息丢失。此外,由于部分异常事件发生频率低,传统数据驱动方法表现不佳。为此,本文提出一种深度时空注意力模型DeepSTA。具体地,为避免信息损失,设计了异常时空学习模块,利用循环神经网络建模事件信息;采用Node2vec刻画道路区域间的关联,并结合图神经网络与长短期记忆网络捕捉快递员的空间-时间依赖性。针对异常条件下训练数据不足的问题,提出异常模式注意力模块,通过注意力机制实现快递员异常特征模式的记忆存储。在2022年新冠疫情期间的真实物流数据集上的实验表明,该模型在MAE上优于最佳基线12.11%,在MSE上优于13.71%,展现出优于多个竞争模型的性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Prediction of couriers' delivery timely rates in advance is essential to the logistics industry, enabling companies to take preemptive measures to ensure the normal operation of delivery services. This becomes even more critical during anomaly conditions like the epidemic outbreak, during which couriers' delivery timely rate will decline markedly and fluctuates significantly. Existing studies pay less attention to the logistics scenario. Moreover, many works focusing on prediction tasks in anomaly scenarios fail to explicitly model abnormal events, e.g., treating external factors equally with other features, resulting in great information loss. Further, since some anomalous events occur infrequently, traditional data-driven methods perform poorly in these scenarios. To deal with them, we propose a deep spatial-temporal attention model, named DeepSTA. To be specific, to avoid information loss, we design an anomaly spatio-temporal learning module that employs a recurrent neural network to model incident information. Additionally, we utilize Node2vec to model correlations between road districts, and adopt graph neural networks and long short-term memory to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies of couriers. To tackle the issue of insufficient training data in abnormal circumstances, we propose an anomaly pattern attention module that adopts a memory network for couriers' anomaly feature patterns storage via attention mechanisms. The experiments on real-world logistics datasets during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2022 show the model outperforms the best baselines by 12.11% in MAE and 13.71% in MSE, demonstrating its superior performance over multiple competitive baselines.

物流预测异常检测时空模型注意力机制

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