融合时间序列与神经网络,提升黄金价格预测精度。
Predicting the Price of Gold in the Financial Markets Using Hybrid Models
- 用ARIMA和逐步回归筛选关键变量,输入神经网络。
- 混合模型误差最小,准确率高于传统时间序列方法。
- 适合金融从业者做商品与市场指标预测参考。
黄金价格预测是金融市场研究中的核心挑战之一。本文提出一种混合模型——ARIMA_逐步回归_神经网络,通过ARIMA分析时间序列数据,结合技术指标与心理因素,利用逐步回归筛选对价格预测影响最大的变量,并将这些变量输入人工神经网络进行最终预测。该方法旨在提高预测准确性,适用于股票、大宗商品、货币对及各类金融指标的预测。实验结果表明,该混合模型在预测精度上优于传统时间序列方法、回归模型及逐步回归模型,具有显著优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predicting the price that has the least error and can provide the best and highest accuracy has been one of the most challenging issues and one of the most critical concerns among capital market activists and researchers. Therefore, a model that can solve problems and provide results with high accuracy is one of the topics of interest among researchers. In this project, using time series prediction models such as ARIMA to estimate the price, variables, and indicators related to technical analysis show the behavior of traders involved in involving psychological factors for the model. By linking all of these variables to stepwise regression, we identify the best variables influencing the prediction of the variable. Finally, we enter the selected variables as inputs to the artificial neural network. In other words, we want to call this whole prediction process the "ARIMA_Stepwise Regression_Neural Network" model and try to predict the price of gold in international financial markets. This approach is expected to be able to be used to predict the types of stocks, commodities, currency pairs, financial market indicators, and other items used in local and international financial markets. Moreover, a comparison between the results of this method and time series methods is also expressed. Finally, based on the results, it can be seen that the resulting hybrid model has the highest accuracy compared to the time series method, regression, and stepwise regression.
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