arXiv:2505.01415cs.LG2025-05被引 5

对比12种模型,发现大模型Chronos在沼泽水位预测中表现最佳。

How Effective are Large Time Series Models in Hydrology? A Study on Water Level Forecasting in Everglades

  • 用12种任务专用模型和5个时间序列基础模型测试水位预测效果。
  • 基础模型Chronos显著优于其他模型,最高提升达23%。
  • 研究结果可为环境系统建模提供新思路,适合气候与水利研究者。

大沼泽地在洪水与干旱调节、水资源规划及生态系统管理中至关重要。然而,传统基于物理或统计的方法常面临计算成本高、适应性差等问题。近年来,大规模时间序列模型在多个领域展现出强大预测能力。但其在大沼泽地等关键环境系统中的应用仍较少被研究。本研究在真实场景下,评估了12种任务特定模型和5个时间序列基础模型在六个类别中的表现。结果表明,基础模型Chronos显著优于所有其他模型,其余基础模型表现较弱。同时,任务特定模型性能随架构变化而异,原因可能涉及数据特征与模型设计的匹配度。研究希望推动大模型在水文领域的应用。代码与数据见https://github.com/rahuul2992000/Everglades-Benchmark。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Everglades play a crucial role in flood and drought regulation, water resource planning, and ecosystem management in the surrounding regions. However, traditional physics-based and statistical methods for predicting water levels often face significant challenges, including high computational costs and limited adaptability to diverse or unforeseen conditions. Recent advancements in large time series models have demonstrated the potential to address these limitations, with state-of-the-art deep learning and foundation models achieving remarkable success in time series forecasting across various domains. Despite this progress, their application to critical environmental systems, such as the Everglades, remains underexplored. In this study, we fill the gap by investigating twelve task-specific models and five time series foundation models across six categories for a real-world application focused on water level prediction in the Everglades. Our primary results show that the foundation model Chronos significantly outperforms all other models while the remaining foundation models exhibit relatively poor performance. We also noticed that the performance of task-specific models varies with the model architectures, and discussed the possible reasons. We hope our study and findings will inspire the community to explore the applicability of large time series models in hydrological applications. The code and data are available at https://github.com/rahuul2992000/Everglades-Benchmark.

时间序列水文预测大模型沼泽

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