提出动态处理下生存分析的因果推断新框架,提升时变治疗效果估计精度。
TV-SurvCaus: Dynamic Representation Balancing for Causal Survival Analysis
- 基于序列建模与动态平衡权重,处理时间依赖的协变量与治疗
- 理论证明涵盖估计精度、方差控制与偏差边界,具严格数学保障
- 适用于医学等纵向研究中随时间变化的治疗策略评估
在医学等领域,估计时变治疗对生存结果的因果效应是一项挑战性任务。尽管表示学习在静态治疗因果推断中取得进展,但将其扩展至具有生存结果的动态治疗方案仍研究不足。本文提出TV-SurvCaus,一种将表示平衡技术拓展至时变治疗场景的新型框架。我们提供了五项理论保证:(1) 时变异质效应估计的广义精度界;(2) 通过序贯平衡权重实现方差控制;(3) 动态治疗方案的一致性结果;(4) 具有时间依赖性的表示学习收敛率;(5) 治疗-混杂反馈导致偏差的正式界。神经架构结合序列建模以处理时间依赖性,并平衡时变表示。在合成与真实数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法在时变协变量与治疗下,优于现有方法,能更准确估计个体化治疗效果。本框架推动了因果推断在动态纵向生存分析中的应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes is a challenging task in many domains, particularly in medicine where treatment protocols adapt over time. While recent advances in representation learning have improved causal inference for static treatments, extending these methods to dynamic treatment regimes with survival outcomes remains under-explored. In this paper, we introduce TV-SurvCaus, a novel framework that extends representation balancing techniques to the time-varying treatment setting for survival analysis. We provide theoretical guarantees through (1) a generalized bound for time-varying precision in estimation of heterogeneous effects, (2) variance control via sequential balancing weights, (3) consistency results for dynamic treatment regimes, (4) convergence rates for representation learning with temporal dependencies, and (5) a formal bound on the bias due to treatment-confounder feedback. Our neural architecture incorporates sequence modeling to handle temporal dependencies while balancing time-dependent representations. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that TV-SurvCaus outperforms existing methods in estimating individualized treatment effects with time-varying covariates and treatments. Our framework advances the field of causal inference by enabling more accurate estimation of treatment effects in dynamic, longitudinal settings with survival outcomes.
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