arXiv:2505.01819cs.LG2025-05被引 2

用混合模型预测人口变化,融合政策影响与长期趋势。

An LSTM-PINN Hybrid Method to the specific problem of population forecasting

  • 结合LSTM与物理信息神经网络,捕捉年龄-时间依赖关系
  • 在三种生育政策下模拟2024–2054年人口演变,结果符合政策敏感性
  • 适合关注人口预测与政策评估的研究者使用

深度学习在科学建模中表现出强大能力,尤其适用于复杂动态系统;然而,在政策驱动的生育率变化背景下,准确刻画分年龄人口动态仍面临挑战,主要源于领域知识与长期时间依赖性的有效整合不足。为此,我们提出两种物理信息深度学习框架——标准PINN与LSTM-PINN,将政策感知的生育函数融入传输-反应型偏微分方程,用于模拟2024至2054年的人口演化。标准PINN通过基于配点的训练强制执行控制方程与边界条件,实现对底层人口动态的准确学习并确保稳定收敛。在此基础上,LSTM-PINN框架引入序列记忆机制,有效捕捉年龄-时间域中的长程依赖关系,在多个损失组件下均表现出稳健的训练性能。在三种不同生育政策情景(三孩政策、普遍二孩政策、分别二孩政策)下的仿真结果表明,模型能准确反映政策敏感性的人口变迁,验证了将领域知识嵌入数据驱动预测的有效性。本研究为政策干预下的分年龄人口动态建模提供了新颖且可扩展的框架,为数据驱动的人口预测与长期政策规划提供重要参考。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool in scientific modeling, particularly for complex dynamical systems; however, accurately capturing age-structured population dynamics under policy-driven fertility changes remains a significant challenge due to the lack of effective integration between domain knowledge and long-term temporal dependencies. To address this issue, we propose two physics-informed deep learning frameworks--PINN and LSTM-PINN--that incorporate policy-aware fertility functions into a transport-reaction partial differential equation to simulate population evolution from 2024 to 2054. The standard PINN model enforces the governing equation and boundary conditions via collocation-based training, enabling accurate learning of underlying population dynamics and ensuring stable convergence. Building on this, the LSTM-PINN framework integrates sequential memory mechanisms to effectively capture long-range dependencies in the age-time domain, achieving robust training performance across multiple loss components. Simulation results under three distinct fertility policy scenarios-the Three-child policy, the Universal two-child policy, and the Separate two-child policy--demonstrate the models' ability to reflect policy-sensitive demographic shifts and highlight the effectiveness of integrating domain knowledge into data-driven forecasting. This study provides a novel and extensible framework for modeling age-structured population dynamics under policy interventions, offering valuable insights for data-informed demographic forecasting and long-term policy planning in the face of emerging population challenges.

人口预测深度学习政策模拟

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。