为马尔可夫决策过程提供完整的贝叶斯框架,实现更可靠的不确定性量化。
Bayesian learning of the optimal action-value function in a Markov decision process
- 基于贝尔曼最优方程构建最小假设的似然函数,支持贝叶斯建模
- 引入可控噪声解决确定性奖励下的退化问题,提升采样效率
- 通过后验采样实现探索优势,在深海任务中验证有效性
马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)是序列决策的经典框架,不确定性量化对学习最优策略至关重要。现有贝叶斯方法常依赖不切实际的假设并使用近似推断,难以保证不确定性量化的可靠性。本文针对有限状态与动作空间、无限时域且无折扣的MDP,提出从建模到推断再到决策的完整贝叶斯框架。建模方面,基于贝尔曼最优方程设计最小假设的似然函数,分析其性质并阐明与已有工作的联系;对于确定性奖励导致的似然退化问题,引入可控人工观测噪声以促进高效蒙特卡洛推断。推断方面,提出自适应顺序蒙特卡洛算法,用于采样并调整松弛后的后验分布序列。决策方面,采用后验分布中的样本选择动作,揭示该策略是多臂老虎机中汤普森采样的自然推广。最后在深海(Deep Sea)基准问题上评估,证明后验采样能有效提升探索性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian framework is used to maintain beliefs about the optimal decisions and the unknown ingredients of the model, which are also to be learned from the data, such as the rewards and state dynamics. However, many existing Bayesian approaches for learning the optimal decision-making strategy are based on unrealistic modelling assumptions and utilise approximate inference techniques. This raises doubts whether the benefits of Bayesian uncertainty quantification are fully realised or can be relied upon. We focus on infinite-horizon and undiscounted MDPs, with finite state and action spaces, and a terminal state. We provide a full Bayesian framework, from modelling to inference to decision-making. For modelling, we introduce a likelihood function with minimal assumptions for learning the optimal action-value function based on Bellman's optimality equations, analyse its properties, and clarify connections to existing works. For deterministic rewards, the likelihood is degenerate and we introduce artificial observation noise to relax it, in a controlled manner, to facilitate more efficient Monte Carlo-based inference. For inference, we propose an adaptive sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to both sample from and adjust the sequence of relaxed posterior distributions. For decision-making, we choose actions using samples from the posterior distribution over the optimal strategies. While commonly done, we provide new insight that clearly shows that it is a generalisation of Thompson sampling from multi-arm bandit problems. Finally, we evaluate our framework on the Deep Sea benchmark problem and demonstrate the exploration benefits of posterior sampling in MDPs.
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