arXiv:2505.02880cs.LG2025-05被引 3

用自适应分段和可学习小波提升GPT金融预测能力

Beyond Fixed Patches: Enhancing GPTs for Financial Prediction with Adaptive Segmentation and Learnable Wavelets

  • 根据市场数据特点动态划分时间片段,保持模式完整性
  • 在真实金融数据集上准确率显著优于固定片段方法
  • 适合需要捕捉多尺度市场规律的量化交易研究者

金融领域因网络技术广泛应用产生海量数据,使预测任务更加复杂。传统机器学习模型受限于容量,难以建模复杂时序依赖。近年来,参数量庞大的生成式预训练变换器(GPTs)展现出建模时间序列复杂关系的潜力。然而,现有基于预训练的方法普遍采用固定长度片段分析,忽略了市场数据的多尺度特性。本文提出 GPT4FTS 框架,通过动态片段分割与可学习小波变换模块增强预训练变换器的时间序列建模能力。首先,基于动态时间规整(DTW)距离的 K-means++ 聚类识别市场数据中的尺度不变模式;随后,依据模式识别结果实施自适应片段分割,确保模式完整性。为应对时变频率特征,设计了可动态调整的小波变换模块,灵活捕捉时频特征。在多个真实金融数据集上的实验验证了该框架的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The extensive adoption of web technologies in the finance and investment sectors has led to an explosion of financial data, which contributes to the complexity of the forecasting task. Traditional machine learning models exhibit limitations in this forecasting task constrained by their restricted model capacity. Recent advances in Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), with their greatly expanded parameter spaces, demonstrate promising potential for modeling complex dependencies in temporal sequences. However, existing pretraining-based approaches typically focus on fixed-length patch analysis, ignoring market data's multi-scale pattern characteristics. In this study, we propose $\mathbf{GPT4FTS}$, a novel framework that enhances pretrained transformer capabilities for temporal sequence modeling through dynamic patch segmentation and learnable wavelet transform modules. Specifically, we first employ K-means++ clustering based on DTW distance to identify scale-invariant patterns in market data. Building upon pattern recognition results, we introduce adaptive patch segmentation that partitions temporal sequences while preserving pattern integrity. To accommodate time-varying frequency characteristics, we devise a dynamic wavelet transform module that emulates discrete wavelet transformation with enhanced flexibility in capturing time-frequency features. Extensive experiments on real-world financial datasets substantiate the framework's efficacy. The source code is available: \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/GPT4FTS-6BCC/}

金融预测自适应分割小波变换GPT

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