arXiv:2505.03109cs.LGecon.GN2025-05被引 6

对比多种深度学习模型在风光发电预测中的表现,发现LSTM和MLP效果最佳。

Deep Learning in Renewable Energy Forecasting: A Cross-Dataset Evaluation of Temporal and Spatial Models

  • 采用7种深度学习模型,在两个真实气象与发电数据集上进行跨数据集评估。
  • LSTM与MLP在验证集上均达到最低均方根误差,表现最优。
  • 通过正则化缓解过拟合,适合能源领域研究人员参考使用。

可再生能源的不可预测性及其复杂建模需求推动了深度学习(DL)方法的发展。鉴于可再生能源数据中变量间存在非线性关系,深度学习模型相比传统机器学习更擅长捕捉复杂交互。本研究旨在识别影响深度学习技术准确性的因素,包括采样策略、平稳性、线性假设及超参数优化。所提出的框架比较了多种方法及不同的训练/测试比例。评估了七种模型:长短期记忆网络(LSTM)、堆叠式LSTM、卷积神经网络(CNN)、CNN-LSTM、深度神经网络(DNN)、多层感知机(MLP)和编码器-解码器(ED),分别在两个数据集上运行。第一个数据集包含西班牙的小时级用电量与气象数据;第二个数据集为12个地点光伏电站的小时级发电输出。研究采用早停、神经元丢弃和L2正则化等策略以减轻深度学习模型的过拟合问题。结果表明,LSTM和MLP模型在验证集上表现出极低的均方根误差,性能领先。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Unpredictability of renewable energy sources coupled with the complexity of those methods used for various purposes in this area calls for the development of robust methods such as DL models within the renewable energy domain. Given the nonlinear relationships among variables in renewable energy datasets, DL models are preferred over traditional machine learning (ML) models because they can effectively capture and model complex interactions between variables. This research aims to identify the factors responsible for the accuracy of DL techniques, such as sampling, stationarity, linearity, and hyperparameter optimization for different algorithms. The proposed DL framework compares various methods and alternative training/test ratios. Seven ML methods, such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), Stacked LSTM, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, Deep Neural Network (DNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Encoder-Decoder (ED), were evaluated on two different datasets. The first dataset contains the weather and power generation data. It encompasses two distinct datasets, hourly energy demand data and hourly weather data in Spain, while the second dataset includes power output generated by the photovoltaic panels at 12 locations. This study deploys regularization approaches, including early stopping, neuron dropping, and L2 regularization, to reduce the overfitting problem associated with DL models. The LSTM and MLP models show superior performance. Their validation data exhibit exceptionally low root mean square error values.

能源预测深度学习LSTM模型对比

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