arXiv:2505.03385astro-ph.SRastro-ph.IM2025-05被引 1

比较三种机器学习模型预测太阳耀斑等级,提升空间天气预报精度。

Solar Flare Forecast: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for Solar Flare Class Prediction

  • 用随机森林、KNN和XGBoost结合13个SHARP参数分类耀斑等级。
  • 降维至8主成分(95%方差)时,随机森林与XGBoost表现最佳。
  • 首次融合二分类与多分类任务,为太阳物理建模提供新方法。

太阳耀斑是太阳大气中磁能突然释放引起的剧烈事件,可释放高达10^32尔格的能量,影响空间天气并威胁技术设施,因此需要准确预测其发生与强度。本研究评估了随机森林、k近邻(KNN)和极端梯度提升(XGBoost)三种机器学习算法在将耀斑划分为四类(B、C、M、X)中的表现。基于13个SHARP参数的数据集,通过二分类与多分类任务评估模型性能。分析采用8个主成分(解释95%方差)和100个主成分(解释97.5%方差)。该研究创新性地结合二分类与多分类任务,并探索不同维度降维效果,此前未在耀斑预测中使用。采用10折分层交叉验证与网格搜索调参,确保评估稳健。结果表明,随机森林与XGBoost在所有指标上均表现优异,且随维度增加受益显著。研究为优化降维策略与模型选择提供依据,助力未来更精准的空间天气预报系统及太阳物理理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to 10^32 erg of energy, impacting space weather and posing risks to technological infrastructure and therefore require accurate forecasting of solar flare occurrences and intensities. This study evaluates the predictive performance of three machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for classifying solar flares into 4 categories (B, C, M, X). Using the dataset of 13 SHARP parameters, the effectiveness of the models was evaluated in binary and multiclass classification tasks. The analysis utilized 8 principal components (PC), capturing 95% of data variance, and 100 PCs, capturing 97.5% of variance. Our approach uniquely combines binary and multiclass classification with different levels of dimensionality reduction, an innovative methodology not previously explored in the context of solar flare prediction. Employing a 10-fold stratified cross-validation and grid search for hyperparameter tuning ensured robust model evaluation. Our findings indicate that Random Forest and XGBoost consistently demonstrate strong performance across all metrics, benefiting significantly from increased dimensionality. The insights of this study enhance future research by optimizing dimensionality reduction techniques and informing model selection for astrophysical tasks. By integrating this newly acquired knowledge into future research, more accurate space weather forecasting systems can be developed, along with a deeper understanding of solar physics.

太阳耀斑机器学习空间天气降维

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