用可穿戴设备和血液指标预测胰岛素抵抗,提前预警糖尿病风险。
Insulin Resistance Prediction From Wearables and Routine Blood Biomarkers
- 融合可穿戴数据与血液指标,构建深度学习模型预测胰岛素抵抗。
- 综合模型在整体人群中达到R²=0.5、AUC=0.80,敏感性76%、特异性84%。
- 对肥胖久坐人群敏感性达93%,适合用于高危人群早期筛查。
胰岛素抵抗是2型糖尿病的前期状态,表现为组织对胰岛素作用减弱。现有检测方法虽有效,但成本高、难获取,限制了早期干预。本研究在美国远程招募了迄今最大规模样本(N=1,165人,中位BMI=28 kg/m²,年龄=45岁,HbA1c=5.4%),结合可穿戴设备时间序列数据与血液生物标志物(含金标准指标HOMA-IR)。我们开发深度神经网络模型,基于易得的数字与血液指标预测胰岛素抵抗。结果显示,联合使用可穿戴与血液数据的模型表现优于单一数据源(R²=0.5,auROC=0.80,灵敏度76%,特异性84%)。在肥胖久坐人群中,灵敏度达93%,调整后特异性为95%,该群体最易发展为2型糖尿病,最受益于早期干预。模型经过严格评估,包括可解释性与鲁棒性,独立验证队列(N=72)中重现了预测性能。此外,我们展示了如何将预测结果集成至大语言模型代理中,帮助理解与解读HOMA-IR值,支持安全个性化的健康建议。本研究为2型糖尿病高危人群的早期识别提供了可行路径,有助于尽早实施预防策略。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Insulin resistance, a precursor to type 2 diabetes, is characterized by impaired insulin action in tissues. Current methods for measuring insulin resistance, while effective, are expensive, inaccessible, not widely available and hinder opportunities for early intervention. In this study, we remotely recruited the largest dataset to date across the US to study insulin resistance (N=1,165 participants, with median BMI=28 kg/m2, age=45 years, HbA1c=5.4%), incorporating wearable device time series data and blood biomarkers, including the ground-truth measure of insulin resistance, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). We developed deep neural network models to predict insulin resistance based on readily available digital and blood biomarkers. Our results show that our models can predict insulin resistance by combining both wearable data and readily available blood biomarkers better than either of the two data sources separately (R2=0.5, auROC=0.80, Sensitivity=76%, and specificity 84%). The model showed 93% sensitivity and 95% adjusted specificity in obese and sedentary participants, a subpopulation most vulnerable to developing type 2 diabetes and who could benefit most from early intervention. Rigorous evaluation of model performance, including interpretability, and robustness, facilitates generalizability across larger cohorts, which is demonstrated by reproducing the prediction performance on an independent validation cohort (N=72 participants). Additionally, we demonstrated how the predicted insulin resistance can be integrated into a large language model agent to help understand and contextualize HOMA-IR values, facilitating interpretation and safe personalized recommendations. This work offers the potential for early detection of people at risk of type 2 diabetes and thereby facilitate earlier implementation of preventative strategies.
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