arXiv:2505.04161cs.LGcs.CY2025-05

用强化学习优化防疫策略,基于英国疫情数据验证了方法有效性。

Optimization of Infectious Disease Intervention Measures Based on Reinforcement Learning -- Empirical analysis based on UK COVID-19 epidemic data

  • 构建基于个体的传染病模型,结合强化学习动态优化干预策略。
  • 实验表明该方法能有效控制疫情扩散并维持经济稳定。
  • 适合公共卫生政策制定者与智能决策研究者参考。

全球范围内,传染病暴发对健康安全和经济造成了深远影响。疫情关键阶段,制定有效的干预措施是学术与实践的共同挑战。尽管已有大量基于强化学习的研究致力于优化传染病干预措施,但多数局限于基于微分方程的流行病学模型。少数研究虽将强化学习引入基于个体的模型,但其模型存在简化与局限,难以刻画传播的复杂性与动态性。本文建立了一个基于个体代理的传播模型的决策框架,利用强化学习持续探索并发展策略函数。通过实验与理论双重验证框架的有效性。对广泛使用的详细代理模型Covasim进行改造,以支持强化学习研究。系统评估多种算法在不同动作空间下的应用效果,并首次开展关于“时间覆盖”问题的初步理论分析。实验结果稳健验证了该方法框架的有效性与可行性。所得应对策略在抑制疫情规模扩张、保障经济系统稳定方面表现优异,为全球公共卫生安全策略制定提供了重要参考。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Globally, the outbreaks of infectious diseases have exerted an extremely profound and severe influence on health security and the economy. During the critical phases of epidemics, devising effective intervention measures poses a significant challenge to both the academic and practical arenas. There is numerous research based on reinforcement learning to optimize intervention measures of infectious diseases. Nevertheless, most of these efforts have been confined within the differential equation based on infectious disease models. Although a limited number of studies have incorporated reinforcement learning methodologies into individual-based infectious disease models, the models employed therein have entailed simplifications and limitations, rendering it incapable of modeling the complexity and dynamics inherent in infectious disease transmission. We establish a decision-making framework based on an individual agent-based transmission model, utilizing reinforcement learning to continuously explore and develop a strategy function. The framework's validity is verified through both experimental and theoretical approaches. Covasim, a detailed and widely used agent-based disease transmission model, was modified to support reinforcement learning research. We conduct an exhaustive exploration of the application efficacy of multiple algorithms across diverse action spaces. Furthermore, we conduct an innovative preliminary theoretical analysis concerning the issue of "time coverage". The results of the experiment robustly validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the methodological framework of this study. The coping strategies gleaned therefrom prove highly efficacious in suppressing the expansion of the epidemic scale and safeguarding the stability of the economic system, thereby providing crucial reference perspectives for the formulation of global public health security strategies.

强化学习传染病建模公共政策

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