arXiv:2505.04196cs.LGcs.MA2025-05被引 9

用大模型生成既真实又多样的虚拟人口,提升交通模拟可靠性。

A Large Language Model for Feasible and Diverse Population Synthesis

  • 用贝叶斯网络拓扑控制大模型生成顺序,平衡真实与多样性。
  • 可行性达95%,显著高于传统方法的80%,多样性相当。
  • 轻量开源模型可在普通电脑运行,适合大城市大规模应用。

生成既可行又多样化的合成人口对活动型模型(ABMs)的下游行为模拟有效性至关重要。尽管变分自编码器和生成对抗网络等深度生成模型已被用于该任务,但常难以兼顾罕见但合理的组合(采样零)与不合理的组合(结构零)的排除。为在保持多样性的同时提升可行性,我们提出一种基于贝叶斯网络拓扑排序的大型语言模型微调方法,显式控制自回归生成过程。实验表明,该混合LLM-BN方法在少样本学习下优于传统DGMs及专有大模型(如ChatGPT-4o)。具体而言,该方法可行性约达95%,显著高于传统DGMs的约80%,同时保持相当的多样性,适用于实际应用。该方法基于轻量级开源大模型,可在标准个人计算环境中完成微调与推理,成本低、可扩展,适用于超大城市人口合成等大规模场景。通过以高质量合成人口启动ABM流程,本方法提升了整体模拟可靠性,减少了下游误差传播。相关源代码已公开供研究与实践使用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Generating a synthetic population that is both feasible and diverse is crucial for ensuring the validity of downstream activity schedule simulation in activity-based models (ABMs). While deep generative models (DGMs), such as variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, have been applied to this task, they often struggle to balance the inclusion of rare but plausible combinations (i.e., sampling zeros) with the exclusion of implausible ones (i.e., structural zeros). To improve feasibility while maintaining diversity, we propose a fine-tuning method for large language models (LLMs) that explicitly controls the autoregressive generation process through topological orderings derived from a Bayesian Network (BN). Experimental results show that our hybrid LLM-BN approach outperforms both traditional DGMs and proprietary LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT-4o) with few-shot learning. Specifically, our approach achieves approximately 95% feasibility, significantly higher than the ~80% observed in DGMs, while maintaining comparable diversity, making it well-suited for practical applications. Importantly, the method is based on a lightweight open-source LLM, enabling fine-tuning and inference on standard personal computing environments. This makes the approach cost-effective and scalable for large-scale applications, such as synthesizing populations in megacities, without relying on expensive infrastructure. By initiating the ABM pipeline with high-quality synthetic populations, our method improves overall simulation reliability and reduces downstream error propagation. The source code for these methods is available for research and practical application.

人口合成大模型贝叶斯网络交通模拟

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