arXiv:2505.04603stat.MEcs.LG2025-05被引 1

无需似然函数,直接匹配后验分布,高效实现贝叶斯推断。

Likelihood-Free Adaptive Bayesian Inference via Nonparametric Distribution Matching

  • 用非参数分布匹配直接比较后验空间,避开传统数据差异度量。
  • 在高维或相关观测下,性能远超现有似然自由方法。
  • 适合高维、复杂依赖结构的贝叶斯推断,尤其适用于无显式似然场景。

当似然函数无法解析表达且计算不可行时,近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)已成为近似后验推断的常用方法;然而,在高维情形或先验分布较宽时,其计算效率严重不足。为此,我们提出自适应贝叶斯推断(ABI),该框架跳过传统的数据空间差异度量,转而通过非参数分布匹配直接在后验空间进行比较。借助一种新型边缘增强切片沃瑟斯坦(MSW)距离及其分位数表示,ABI将后验分布间散度度量难题转化为一系列一维条件分位数回归任务。此外,我们引入一种新的自适应拒绝采样方案,通过生成密度估计迭代更新提议分布以优化后验逼近。理论上,我们建立了截断MSW距离的参数收敛率,并证明当容差阈值趋近于零时,ABI后验收敛至真实后验。大量实证评估表明,与基于数据的沃瑟斯坦ABC、基于摘要的ABC以及最先进的似然自由模拟器相比,ABI在高维或观测具有依赖性的情形下表现显著更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

When the likelihood is analytically unavailable and computationally intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a widely used methodology for approximate posterior inference; however, it suffers from severe computational inefficiency in high-dimensional settings or under diffuse priors. To overcome these limitations, we propose Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI), a framework that bypasses traditional data-space discrepancies and instead compares distributions directly in posterior space through nonparametric distribution matching. By leveraging a novel Marginally-augmented Sliced Wasserstein (MSW) distance on posterior measures and exploiting its quantile representation, ABI transforms the challenging problem of measuring divergence between posterior distributions into a tractable sequence of one-dimensional conditional quantile regression tasks. Moreover, we introduce a new adaptive rejection sampling scheme that iteratively refines the posterior approximation by updating the proposal distribution via generative density estimation. Theoretically, we establish parametric convergence rates for the trimmed MSW distance and prove that the ABI posterior converges to the true posterior as the tolerance threshold vanishes. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that ABI significantly outperforms data-based Wasserstein ABC, summary-based ABC, and state-of-the-art likelihood-free simulators, especially in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.

贝叶斯推断似然自由分布匹配非参数

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