面对标签错误数据,提出新方法实现可靠不确定性估计。
Conformal Prediction with Corrupted Labels: Uncertain Imputation and Robust Re-weighting
- 用不确定补全法直接处理错误标签,不依赖权重估计
- 理论证明即使权重不准,结果仍有效,且实测表现稳定
- 适合标签质量差的场景,如医疗、工业质检等应用
针对标签存在噪声或缺失的训练数据,我们提出一种鲁棒的不确定性量化框架。基于符合性预测(conformal prediction)构建预测集以保证测试标签覆盖率,但传统方法依赖独立同分布假设,在标签污染下失效。现有特权符合性预测(PCP)利用训练期可用的额外信息(特权信息,PI)重加权数据分布,但其有效性依赖权重准确性。本文分析发现,即使权重估计不佳,PCP仍可保持有效性。进一步提出不确定补全(Uncertain Imputation, UI),无需权重估计,通过保留不确定性的方式重构受损标签。该方法具有理论保障,并在合成与真实基准上验证。最后,我们构建三重鲁棒框架,只要任一子方法有效,整体预测即保持统计有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets that cover the test label with a pre-specified probability. The validity of conformal prediction, however, holds under the i.i.d assumption, which does not hold in our setting due to the corruptions in the data. To account for this distribution shift, the privileged conformal prediction (PCP) method proposed leveraging privileged information (PI) -- additional features available only during training -- to re-weight the data distribution, yielding valid prediction sets under the assumption that the weights are accurate. In this work, we analyze the robustness of PCP to inaccuracies in the weights. Our analysis indicates that PCP can still yield valid uncertainty estimates even when the weights are poorly estimated. Furthermore, we introduce uncertain imputation (UI), a new conformal method that does not rely on weight estimation. Instead, we impute corrupted labels in a way that preserves their uncertainty. Our approach is supported by theoretical guarantees and validated empirically on both synthetic and real benchmarks. Finally, we show that these techniques can be integrated into a triply robust framework, ensuring statistically valid predictions as long as at least one underlying method is valid.
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