arXiv:2505.04931cs.LGcs.AI2025-05被引 5

提升抑郁症预测的公平性与可靠性,确保不同群体结果一致可信。

Fair Uncertainty Quantification for Depression Prediction

  • 按人群分组用置信区间量化不确定性,保证预测可靠性
  • 在多个数据集上实现高覆盖率与低偏差,跨群体公平性提升23%以上
  • 适合医疗AI开发者、临床研究者关注算法公平性问题

基于深度学习的可信抑郁症预测需兼顾预测可靠性与不同人口群体间的算法公平性。近年来,通过不确定性量化(UQ)实现可靠预测受到关注,但极少研究关注UQ本身的公平性。本文探讨了不确定性量化的算法公平性,即等机会覆盖(EOC)公平性,提出面向抑郁症预测的公平不确定性量化(FUQ)方法。该方法通过敏感属性分组,结合分组置信预测,在各群体内提供理论保障的不确定性量化,支持跨群体公平性分析。进一步提出一种公平性感知优化策略,将公平性建模为在EOC约束下的约束优化问题,使模型在保持预测可靠性的同时,适应不同群体间异质的不确定性水平,实现最优公平性。在多个视觉与音频抑郁症数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法有效提升了预测的可靠性与跨群体公平性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Trustworthy depression prediction based on deep learning, incorporating both predictive reliability and algorithmic fairness across diverse demographic groups, is crucial for clinical application. Recently, achieving reliable depression predictions through uncertainty quantification has attracted increasing attention. However, few studies have focused on the fairness of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in depression prediction. In this work, we investigate the algorithmic fairness of UQ, namely Equal Opportunity Coverage (EOC) fairness, and propose Fair Uncertainty Quantification (FUQ) for depression prediction. FUQ pursues reliable and fair depression predictions through group-based analysis. Specifically, we first group all the participants by different sensitive attributes and leverage conformal prediction to quantify uncertainty within each demographic group, which provides a theoretically guaranteed and valid way to quantify uncertainty for depression prediction and facilitates the investigation of fairness across different demographic groups. Furthermore, we propose a fairness-aware optimization strategy that formulates fairness as a constrained optimization problem under EOC constraints. This enables the model to preserve predictive reliability while adapting to the heterogeneous uncertainty levels across demographic groups, thereby achieving optimal fairness. Through extensive evaluations on several visual and audio depression datasets, our approach demonstrates its effectiveness.

抑郁症预测不确定性量化算法公平性医疗AI

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