融合多物理模型知识,提升农业生态预测的泛化能力
Knowledge Guided Encoder-Decoder Framework: Integrating Multiple Physical Models for Agricultural Ecosystem Modeling
- 用编码器-解码器框架整合多个物理模型的先验知识
- 在多个站点上精准预测碳氮通量,适应数据分布变化
- 结合语言模型处理复杂输入并自动选择最优模型知识
农业监测对保障粮食安全、推动可持续农耕、制定减缓粮食短缺政策及管理温室气体排放至关重要。传统过程驱动的物理模型通常针对特定场景设计,参数不确定性高;而数据驱动模型多为黑箱结构,未显式建模生态变量间的相互依赖,需大量训练数据且在数据分布变化或观测变量不一致时泛化能力差。为此,我们提出一种知识引导的编码器-解码器框架,通过融合多个物理模型的底层机制知识,预测关键作物变量。该方法还引入语言模型处理复杂不一致输入,并实现模型选择机制,动态组合不同物理模型的知识。在多个站点预测碳和氮通量的评估中,模型展现出良好的有效性与鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Agricultural monitoring is critical for ensuring food security, maintaining sustainable farming practices, informing policies on mitigating food shortage, and managing greenhouse gas emissions. Traditional process-based physical models are often designed and implemented for specific situations, and their parameters could also be highly uncertain. In contrast, data-driven models often use black-box structures and does not explicitly model the inter-dependence between different ecological variables. As a result, they require extensive training data and lack generalizability to different tasks with data distribution shifts and inconsistent observed variables. To address the need for more universal models, we propose a knowledge-guided encoder-decoder model, which can predict key crop variables by leveraging knowledge of underlying processes from multiple physical models. The proposed method also integrates a language model to process complex and inconsistent inputs and also utilizes it to implement a model selection mechanism for selectively combining the knowledge from different physical models. Our evaluations on predicting carbon and nitrogen fluxes for multiple sites demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model under various scenarios.
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