用自适应时频网络提升海浪高度预测精度,防泄漏且稳定
A Novel Framework for Significant Wave Height Prediction based on Adaptive Feature Extraction Time-Frequency Network
- 结合小波与傅里叶变换做多尺度频域特征提取
- 融合时频特征后,中长期预测误差显著降低
- 适合海洋能源开发中的复杂信号预测任务
精确预测有效波高(Hs)对波浪能开发至关重要。由于其非线性和非平稳特性,预测难度大。现有方法通过分解预处理与机器学习结合提取特征,但测试集分解易引发数据泄露。为此提出自适应特征提取时频网络(AFE-TFNet),采用编码器-解码器滚动框架:编码器分两阶段——特征提取阶段利用小波变换(WT)和傅里叶变换(FT)结合,通过Inception模块进行多尺度频率分析;特征融合阶段采用主导谐波序列能量加权(DHSEW)融合时频特征。解码器使用先进LSTM模型。以三个站点的小时级风速(Ws)、主波周期(DPD)、平均波周期(APD)和有效波高(Hs)为数据集,采用四项指标评估性能。结果表明,AFE-TFNet在预测精度上显著优于基准方法;特征提取可大幅提升精度;DHSEW显著提高中长期预测准确率;预测精度对滚动窗口大小变化不敏感。整体显示其在复杂信号预测中的强潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Precise forecasting of significant wave height (Hs) is essential for the development and utilization of wave energy. The challenges in predicting Hs arise from its non-linear and non-stationary characteristics. The combination of decomposition preprocessing and machine learning models have demonstrated significant effectiveness in Hs prediction by extracting data features. However, decomposing the unknown data in the test set can lead to data leakage issues. To simultaneously achieve data feature extraction and prevent data leakage, a novel Adaptive Feature Extraction Time-Frequency Network (AFE-TFNet) is proposed to improve prediction accuracy and stability. It is encoder-decoder rolling framework. The encoder consists of two stages: feature extraction and feature fusion. In the feature extraction stage, global and local frequency domain features are extracted by combining Wavelet Transform (WT) and Fourier Transform (FT), and multi-scale frequency analysis is performed using Inception blocks. In the feature fusion stage, time-domain and frequency-domain features are integrated through dominant harmonic sequence energy weighting (DHSEW). The decoder employed an advanced long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Hourly measured wind speed (Ws), dominant wave period (DPD), average wave period (APD) and Hs from three stations are used as the dataset, and the four metrics are employed to evaluate the forecasting performance. Results show that AFE-TFNet significantly outperforms benchmark methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Feature extraction can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. DHSEW has substantially increased the accuracy of medium-term to long-term forecasting. The prediction accuracy of AFE-TFNet does not demonstrate significant variability with changes of rolling time window size. Overall, AFE-TFNet shows strong potential for handling complex signal forecasting.
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