arXiv:2505.06762cs.LGcs.RO2025-05

用地理随机森林分析自动驾驶出租车事故严重程度,发现城区越复杂事故越轻。

Investigating Robotaxi Crash Severity with Geographical Random Forest and the Urban Environment

  • 采用地理随机森林模型,捕捉城市空间差异对事故的影响。
  • 土地利用是预测事故严重性的最重要因素,商业区事故多为轻伤。
  • 住宅区事故更严重,建议在该区域设置更严格的安全策略。

本文通过空间局部化机器学习与城市建成环境的宏观度量,定量研究自动驾驶汽车(AV)事故严重程度。超越单一基础设施的微观影响,聚焦城市尺度的土地利用与行为模式,同时处理空间异质性与空间自相关问题。在加州自动驾驶碰撞数据集上应用地理随机森林(GRF)技术,结合兴趣点、建筑轮廓和土地利用等城市指标,构建了旧金山事故严重程度风险地图。研究发现:第一,空间局部化机器学习在预测事故严重性上优于传统方法,偏差-方差权衡随局部化权重超参数调整而显现;第二,土地利用是比交叉口、建筑轮廓、公交站点及兴趣点更重要的预测因子;第三,市中心多元且商业活跃区域的自动驾驶事故更可能为低严重性,而住宅区事故严重性更高,可能与人类行为及环境约束较弱有关。建议自动驾驶运营商根据运营区域定制感知算法,并在住宅区部署更低车速与更灵敏传感器以提升安全。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper quantitatively investigates the crash severity of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) with spatially localized machine learning and macroscopic measures of the urban built environment. Extending beyond the microscopic effects of individual infrastructure elements, we focus on the city-scale land use and behavioral patterns, while addressing spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. We implemented a spatially localized machine learning technique called Geographical Random Forest (GRF) on the California AV collision dataset. Analyzing multiple urban measures, including points of interest, building footprint, and land use, we built a GRF model and visualized it as a crash severity risk map of San Francisco. This paper presents three findings. First, spatially localized machine learning outperformed regular machine learning in predicting AV crash severity. The bias-variance tradeoff was evident as we adjusted the localization weight hyperparameter. Second, land use was the most important predictor, compared to intersections, building footprints, public transit stops, and Points Of Interest (POIs). Third, AV crashes were more likely to result in low-severity incidents in city center areas with greater diversity and commercial activities, than in residential neighborhoods. Residential land use is likely associated with higher severity due to human behavior and less restrictive environments. Counterintuitively, residential areas were associated with higher crash severity, compared to more complex areas such as commercial and mixed-use areas. When robotaxi operators train their AV systems, it is recommended to: (1) consider where their fleet operates and make localized algorithms for their perception system, and (2) design safety measures specific to residential neighborhoods, such as slower driving speeds and more alert sensors.

自动驾驶城市交通风险预测地理机器学习

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