arXiv:2505.06917cs.LG2025-05被引 3

用傅里叶分析与交叉注意力提升非平稳时间序列预测精度

Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Based on Fourier Analysis and Cross Attention Mechanism

  • 通过交叉注意力融合稳定与不稳定分量信息
  • 在非平稳数据下均方误差和绝对误差显著降低
  • 适合金融、气象等复杂时序场景的建模需求

时间序列预测在金融分析、天气预报和交通管理中有重要应用。然而,现有深度学习模型难以有效处理非平稳时间序列数据,因其无法捕捉随时间变化的统计特性。为此,本文提出新框架AEFIN,通过引入交叉注意力机制增强稳定与不稳定分量间的信息共享,并结合傅里叶分析网络与MLP,深入挖掘不稳定分量中的周期模式与趋势特征。此外,设计了一种新损失函数,整合时域稳定性、时域不稳定性及频域稳定性约束,提升预测准确性和鲁棒性。实验表明,AEFIN在均方误差和平均绝对误差上优于常见模型,尤其在非平稳数据条件下表现优异,展现出强大的预测能力。本研究为非平稳时间序列的建模与预测提供了创新解决方案,推动了深度学习在复杂时序数据中的应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting has important applications in financial analysis, weather forecasting, and traffic management. However, existing deep learning models are limited in processing non-stationary time series data because they cannot effectively capture the statistical characteristics that change over time. To address this problem, this paper proposes a new framework, AEFIN, which enhances the information sharing ability between stable and unstable components by introducing a cross-attention mechanism, and combines Fourier analysis networks with MLP to deeply explore the seasonal patterns and trend characteristics in unstable components. In addition, we design a new loss function that combines time-domain stability constraints, time-domain instability constraints, and frequency-domain stability constraints to improve the accuracy and robustness of forecasting. Experimental results show that AEFIN outperforms the most common models in terms of mean square error and mean absolute error, especially under non-stationary data conditions, and shows excellent forecasting capabilities. This paper provides an innovative solution for the modeling and forecasting of non-stationary time series data, and contributes to the research of deep learning for complex time series.

时间序列傅里叶分析交叉注意力非平稳

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