通过稳定度加权优化超参数,提升模型测试表现可靠性。
Stability Regularized Cross-Validation
- 用嵌套交叉验证最小化误差与模型稳定性加权和
- 稀疏岭回归和CART的外样本均方误差分别降低4%和2%
- 特别适合不稳定模型,减少实际测试时的性能落差
我们重新审视通过交叉验证确保强测试集性能的问题,提出一种嵌套k折交叉验证方案,通过最小化常规交叉验证指标与经验模型稳定度加权和来选择超参数,其中稳定度项权重也通过嵌套交叉验证确定。该方法降低了因模型不稳定性导致验证集表现好但测试集表现差的风险。我们在13个真实世界数据集上进行基准测试,结果表明:相比相同超参数下的k折交叉验证,该方法对稀疏岭回归和CART的外样本均方误差平均分别降低4%和2%,而对XGBoost无显著影响。同时显著减少用户在样本外预测中的失望感。例如,对于稀疏岭回归,嵌套k折交叉验证误差平均比测试集误差低0.9%,而k折交叉验证误差则比测试集误差低21.8%。因此,对于稀疏回归和CART等不稳定模型,该方法能有效提升测试集性能并降低外样本预期落差。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We revisit the problem of ensuring strong test set performance via cross-validation, and propose a nested k-fold cross-validation scheme that selects hyperparameters by minimizing a weighted sum of the usual cross-validation metric and an empirical model-stability measure. The weight on the stability term is itself chosen via a nested cross-validation procedure. This reduces the risk of strong validation set performance and poor test set performance due to instability. We benchmark our procedure on a suite of $13$ real-world datasets, and find that, compared to $k$-fold cross-validation over the same hyperparameters, it improves the out-of-sample MSE for sparse ridge regression and CART by $4\%$ and $2\%$ respectively on average, but has no impact on XGBoost. It also reduces the user's out-of-sample disappointment, sometimes significantly. For instance, for sparse ridge regression, the nested k-fold cross-validation error is on average $0.9\%$ lower than the test set error, while the $k$-fold cross-validation error is $21.8\%$ lower than the test error. Thus, for unstable models such as sparse regression and CART, our approach improves test set performance and reduces out-of-sample disappointment.
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