用大模型分析交通事故,更懂复杂场景且能解释原因。
CrashSage: A Large Language Model-Centered Framework for Contextual and Interpretable Traffic Crash Analysis
- 将事故数据转为连贯文本,保留多车互动等上下文信息
- 微调大模型预测事故严重程度,准确率超主流方法
- 可解释决策过程,帮助制定精准道路安全措施
全球每年因道路交通事故死亡超130万人,经济损失逾1.8万亿美元。传统统计模型和树集成方法依赖结构化数据,忽略情境细节,难以捕捉复杂关系与语义信息,尤其在多车交互、事故演化和罕见事件描述上易丢失关键内容。本文提出CrashSage,一种以大语言模型(LLM)为核心的事故分析框架,包含四项创新:一、采用表格转文本策略与关系数据融合方案,将异构原始数据转化为富含上下文的结构化叙述;二、利用基础大模型进行上下文感知的数据增强,提升叙事连贯性同时保持事实准确性;三、对LLaMA3-8B模型进行事故严重性推理微调,在零样本、链式思维提示及少样本学习下均优于GPT-4o、GPT-4o-mini、LLaMA3-70B等基线模型;四、采用基于梯度的可解释性技术,揭示个体事故及整体风险因素层面的决策依据。该机制增强透明度,助力精准道路安全干预。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Road crashes claim over 1.3 million lives annually worldwide and incur global economic losses exceeding \$1.8 trillion. Such profound societal and financial impacts underscore the urgent need for road safety research that uncovers crash mechanisms and delivers actionable insights. Conventional statistical models and tree ensemble approaches typically rely on structured crash data, overlooking contextual nuances and struggling to capture complex relationships and underlying semantics. Moreover, these approaches tend to incur significant information loss, particularly in narrative elements related to multi-vehicle interactions, crash progression, and rare event characteristics. This study presents CrashSage, a novel Large Language Model (LLM)-centered framework designed to advance crash analysis and modeling through four key innovations. First, we introduce a tabular-to-text transformation strategy paired with relational data integration schema, enabling the conversion of raw, heterogeneous crash data into enriched, structured textual narratives that retain essential structural and relational context. Second, we apply context-aware data augmentation using a base LLM model to improve narrative coherence while preserving factual integrity. Third, we fine-tune the LLaMA3-8B model for crash severity inference, demonstrating superior performance over baseline approaches, including zero-shot, zero-shot with chain-of-thought prompting, and few-shot learning, with multiple models (GPT-4o, GPT-4o-mini, LLaMA3-70B). Finally, we employ a gradient-based explainability technique to elucidate model decisions at both the individual crash level and across broader risk factor dimensions. This interpretability mechanism enhances transparency and enables targeted road safety interventions by providing deeper insights into the most influential factors.
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