用预训练模型预测服务品质,还能给出可信的置信度。
QoSBERT: An Uncertainty-Aware Approach based on Pre-trained Language Models for Service Quality Prediction
- 将服务元数据转为自然语言,用BERT做语义回归预测。
- 响应时间预测MAE降低11.7%,吞吐量预测MAE降低6.9%。
- 首次引入不确定性估计,适合高风险服务选型场景。
准确预测服务质量(QoS)指标对云服务的选择与管理至关重要。传统方法依赖人工特征工程,仅提供点估计,无法反映预测置信度。本文提出QoSBERT,首个基于预训练语言模型将QoS预测重构为语义回归任务的框架。不同于依赖稀疏数值特征的旧方法,QoSBERT自动将用户服务元数据编码为自然语言描述,实现深层语义理解。同时集成基于蒙特卡洛丢弃的不确定性估计模块,实现可信赖的风险感知预测,这一能力在现有模型中尚未被充分探索。QoSBERT通过注意力池化获取上下文嵌入,并使用轻量级多层感知机回归器,联合微调以最小化绝对误差。进一步利用不确定性估计筛选高质量训练样本,提升低资源场景下的鲁棒性。在标准QoS基准数据集上,相比最强基线,响应时间预测的平均MAE降低11.7%,RMSE降低6.7%;吞吐量预测的平均MAE降低6.9%,同时提供校准良好的置信区间,支持更可靠的服务质量评估。该方法不仅提升了预测精度,还实现了可靠的不确定性量化,为更可信、数据驱动的服务选择与优化铺平道路。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of Quality of Service (QoS) metrics is fundamental for selecting and managing cloud based services. Traditional QoS models rely on manual feature engineering and yield only point estimates, offering no insight into the confidence of their predictions. In this paper, we propose QoSBERT, the first framework that reformulates QoS prediction as a semantic regression task based on pre trained language models. Unlike previous approaches relying on sparse numerical features, QoSBERT automatically encodes user service metadata into natural language descriptions, enabling deep semantic understanding. Furthermore, we integrate a Monte Carlo Dropout based uncertainty estimation module, allowing for trustworthy and risk-aware service quality prediction, which is crucial yet underexplored in existing QoS models. QoSBERT applies attentive pooling over contextualized embeddings and a lightweight multilayer perceptron regressor, fine tuned jointly to minimize absolute error. We further exploit the resulting uncertainty estimates to select high quality training samples, improving robustness in low resource settings. On standard QoS benchmark datasets, QoSBERT achieves an average reduction of 11.7% in MAE and 6.7% in RMSE for response time prediction, and 6.9% in MAE for throughput prediction compared to the strongest baselines, while providing well calibrated confidence intervals for robust and trustworthy service quality estimation. Our approach not only advances the accuracy of service quality prediction but also delivers reliable uncertainty quantification, paving the way for more trustworthy, data driven service selection and optimization.
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