用反事实推理构建可识别的低成本因果决策框架,提升异常状态下的决策效率。
An Identifiable Cost-Aware Causal Decision-Making Framework Using Counterfactual Reasoning
- 基于因果图构建代理模型,利用异常聚类标签实现反事实推理可识别
- 在连续决策空间中找到最优干预策略,成本更低且性能更优
- 适合需要高可靠性与成本控制的工业系统故障恢复场景
异常状态下的决策是评估当前状态并确定以可接受成本将系统恢复至正常状态的最优动作的关键过程。现有框架多依赖强化学习或根因分析,常忽略行动成本或未能充分纳入因果机制。为此,本文通过放宽现有因果决策框架以解决必要原因问题,提出最小成本因果决策(MiCCD)框架,采用反事实推理应对上述挑战。重点在于在大量混合异常数据下使反事实推理过程可识别,并在连续决策空间中寻找最优干预状态。具体而言,该方法基于因果图构建代理模型,以异常模式聚类标签作为监督信号,近似变量间的结构化因果模型,为可识别的反事实推理奠定基础。在因果结构近似后,建立基于反事实估计的优化模型,并采用序列最小二乘法(SLSQP)算法优化干预策略,同时考虑成本因素。在合成及真实世界数据集上的实验表明,MiCCD在多个指标上优于传统方法,包括F1分数、成本效率和排序质量(nDCG@k值),验证了其有效性与广泛应用潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Decision making under abnormal conditions is a critical process that involves evaluating the current state and determining the optimal action to restore the system to a normal state at an acceptable cost. However, in such scenarios, existing decision-making frameworks highly rely on reinforcement learning or root cause analysis, resulting in them frequently neglecting the cost of the actions or failing to incorporate causal mechanisms adequately. By relaxing the existing causal decision framework to solve the necessary cause, we propose a minimum-cost causal decision (MiCCD) framework via counterfactual reasoning to address the above challenges. Emphasis is placed on making counterfactual reasoning processes identifiable in the presence of a large amount of mixed anomaly data, as well as finding the optimal intervention state in a continuous decision space. Specifically, it formulates a surrogate model based on causal graphs, using abnormal pattern clustering labels as supervisory signals. This enables the approximation of the structural causal model among the variables and lays a foundation for identifiable counterfactual reasoning. With the causal structure approximated, we then established an optimization model based on counterfactual estimation. The Sequential Least Squares Programming (SLSQP) algorithm is further employed to optimize intervention strategies while taking costs into account. Experimental evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets reveal that MiCCD outperforms conventional methods across multiple metrics, including F1-score, cost efficiency, and ranking quality(nDCG@k values), thus validating its efficacy and broad applicability.
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