arXiv:2505.09074cs.RO2025-05被引 5

审视运动预测在真实场景中的部署与泛化难题,推动智能系统落地。

Trends in Motion Prediction Toward Deployable and Generalizable Autonomy: A Revisit and Perspectives

  • 构建运动预测方法的综合分类体系,涵盖表示、建模与评估
  • 指出当前模型在真实闭环系统中难以满足部署标准
  • 聚焦开放世界泛化挑战,适合自动驾驶与机器人研究者

运动预测,近年来作为世界模型被广泛研究,指对未来主体状态或场景演化的预判,源于人类认知,连接感知与决策。它使机器人和自动驾驶汽车能在动态、有人参与的环境中安全行动,并推动时间序列推理的发展。随着方法、表征与数据集的进步,该领域迅速发展,基准测试结果持续提升。然而,当先进模型投入实际应用时,常难以适应开放世界条件,未达部署要求,暴露出研究基准(多理想化或设置不当)与真实复杂性之间的差距。为此,本文重新审视运动预测的泛化与可部署性,重点关注机器人、自动驾驶与人体运动的应用。首先提供运动预测方法的全面分类,涵盖表示、建模策略、应用领域与评估协议;随后深入探讨两大关键挑战:(1) 如何使运动预测模型满足真实部署标准——它并非孤立运行,而是作为闭环自主系统中的一环,接收定位与感知输入,并指导下游规划与控制;(2) 如何从有限已见场景/数据集推广至开放世界环境。文中持续强调关键开放挑战,旨在引导未来研究方向,促使社区努力既可度量又具实际意义。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Motion prediction, recently popularized as world models, refers to the anticipation of future agent states or scene evolution, which is rooted in human cognition, bridging perception and decision-making. It enables intelligent systems, such as robots and self-driving cars, to act safely in dynamic, human-involved environments, and informs broader time-series reasoning challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in quickly evolving benchmark results. Yet, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they often struggle to generalize to open-world conditions and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between research benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and real-world complexity. To address this gap, this survey revisits the generalization and deployability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on applications of robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion. We first offer a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modeling strategies, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then study two key challenges: (1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks - it takes input localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control. 2) How to generalize motion prediction models from limited seen scenarios/datasets to the open-world settings. Throughout the paper, we highlight critical open challenges to guide future work, aiming to recalibrate the community's efforts, fostering progress that is not only measurable but also meaningful for real-world applications. The project webpage can be found here https://trends-in-motion-prediction-2025.github.io/.

运动预测自动驾驶泛化能力部署挑战

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