arXiv:2505.09365physics.space-phastro-ph.IM2025-05中稿 · 01 December 2025, …被引 3

首个实时检测日冕物质抛射的框架,提前发现太空天气威胁

ARCANE -- Early Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

  • 用ResUNet++模型结合实时太阳风数据,提前识别日冕物质抛射
  • 检测延迟仅占事件时长24.5%,F1分数达0.37,性能随数据量提升
  • 适合空间天气预警系统,尤其适用于高影响事件早期发现

日地间日冕物质抛射(ICME)是引发空间天气扰动的主要因素,威胁技术和人类活动。对太阳风原位数据中ICME的自动检测对早期预警至关重要。尽管已有多种方法用于时间序列中的结构识别,但在实际运行条件下实现鲁棒的实时检测仍具挑战。本文提出ARCANE——首个专为在真实操作约束下流式太阳风数据中提前检测ICME而设计的框架,可在未观测到完整结构时即完成事件识别。通过对比基于机器学习的方法与阈值基准,我们发现此前已在科学数据上验证的ResUNet++模型显著优于基准,尤其在高影响事件检测中表现突出,同时在低影响事件上也保持良好性能。值得注意的是,使用实时太阳风(RTSW)数据替代高分辨率科学数据,仅导致轻微性能下降。尽管存在实际运行挑战,该检测流程在仅处理极小部分事件数据的情况下,仍实现了F1分数0.37,平均检测延迟为事件持续时间的24.5%。随着数据增加,性能显著提升。这些成果标志着自动化空间天气监测的重大进展,并为增强实时预报能力奠定基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are major drivers of space weather disturbances, posing risks to both technological infrastructure and human activities. Automatic detection of ICMEs in solar wind in situ data is essential for early warning systems. While several methods have been proposed to identify these structures in time series data, robust real-time detection remains a significant challenge. In this work, we present ARCANE - the first framework explicitly designed for early ICME detection in streaming solar wind data under realistic operational constraints, enabling event identification without requiring observation of the full structure. Our approach evaluates the strengths and limitations of detection models by comparing a machine learning-based method to a threshold-based baseline. The ResUNet++ model, previously validated on science data, significantly outperforms the baseline, particularly in detecting high-impact events, while retaining solid performance on lower-impact cases. Notably, we find that using real-time solar wind (RTSW) data instead of high-resolution science data leads to only minimal performance degradation. Despite the challenges of operational settings, our detection pipeline achieves an F1-Score of 0.37, with an average detection delay of 24.5% of the event's duration while processing only a minimal portion of the event data. As more data becomes available, the performance increases significantly. These results mark a substantial step forward in automated space weather monitoring and lay the groundwork for enhanced real-time forecasting capabilities.

空间天气实时检测机器学习太阳风

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