arXiv:2505.09783stat.APcs.LG2025-05被引 2

用可解释机器学习预测分子物性,精度提升且能看清关键结构特征。

Pure Component Property Estimation Framework Using Explainable Machine Learning Methods

  • 基于连接矩阵的分子表征自动提取原子键合关系作为特征。
  • 特征降维至100个后模型精度不变,沸点等物性预测误差降低83.8%。
  • 通过Shapley值分析揭示不同物性受不同分子结构影响,适合化工建模者使用。

准确预测纯组分物理化学性质对过程集成、多尺度建模和优化至关重要。本文提出一种基于可解释机器学习的增强型纯组分性质预测框架。该框架采用基于连接矩阵的分子表征方法,自动捕捉原子间的键合关系生成特征;利用随机森林进行特征排序与聚合,并引入调整后R²惩罚冗余特征,评估特征真实贡献。采用人工神经网络与高斯过程回归模型预测正常沸点(Tb)、液态摩尔体积、临界温度(Tc)和临界压力(Pc),验证了分子表征的有效性。与基于图卷积的模型相比,测试集均方根误差最高降低83.8%。为提升模型可解释性,采用基于Shapley值的特征分析方法,结果表明特征聚合将特征数从13316降至100而不损失精度。对Tb、Tc、Pc的特征分析显示,不同物性受不同结构特征影响,符合机理认知。结论表明该框架可行,为混合物组分重构与过程集成建模提供坚实基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate prediction of pure component physiochemical properties is crucial for process integration, multiscale modeling, and optimization. In this work, an enhanced framework for pure component property prediction by using explainable machine learning methods is proposed. In this framework, the molecular representation method based on the connectivity matrix effectively considers atomic bonding relationships to automatically generate features. The supervised machine learning model random forest is applied for feature ranking and pooling. The adjusted R2 is introduced to penalize the inclusion of additional features, providing an assessment of the true contribution of features. The prediction results for normal boiling point (Tb), liquid molar volume, critical temperature (Tc) and critical pressure (Pc) obtained using Artificial Neural Network and Gaussian Process Regression models confirm the accuracy of the molecular representation method. Comparison with GC based models shows that the root-mean-square error on the test set can be reduced by up to 83.8%. To enhance the interpretability of the model, a feature analysis method based on Shapley values is employed to determine the contribution of each feature to the property predictions. The results indicate that using the feature pooling method reduces the number of features from 13316 to 100 without compromising model accuracy. The feature analysis results for Tb, Tc, and Pc confirms that different molecular properties are influenced by different structural features, aligning with mechanistic interpretations. In conclusion, the proposed framework is demonstrated to be feasible and provides a solid foundation for mixture component reconstruction and process integration modelling.

分子性质可解释模型特征降维化工建模

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