arXiv:2505.09907cs.LGcs.AI2025-05被引 14

用混合模型预测牛油果价格,准确率超传统方法。

Avocado Price Prediction Using a Hybrid Deep Learning Model: TCN-MLP-Attention Architecture

  • 结合时序卷积、多层感知机和注意力机制捕捉价格变化规律。
  • 在超5万条美国牛油果销售数据上,均方根误差仅1.23。
  • 适合农业供应链管理与定价策略优化的研究者参考。

随着健康食品需求增长,农产品价格预测日益重要。哈斯牛油果作为高价值作物,其价格受季节、地区和天气等因素影响,呈现复杂波动。传统模型难以应对高度非线性动态数据。为此,本文提出一种混合深度学习模型——TCN-MLP-Attention架构,融合时间卷积网络(TCN)提取时序特征、多层感知机(MLP)建模非线性关系、注意力机制动态加权关键特征。数据集涵盖2015至2018年美国超过5万条哈斯牛油果销售记录,包含销量、平均价格、时间、区域、天气和品种类型等变量,来源为销售点系统及哈斯牛油果协会。经过缺失值填补与特征归一化等预处理后进行训练与评估。实验结果表明,该模型预测性能优异,均方根误差(RMSE)达1.23,均方误差(MSE)为1.51,显著优于传统方法。本研究为农产品市场时序预测提供可扩展、高效的解决方案,并为智能供应链管理和价格策略优化提供支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

With the growing demand for healthy foods, agricultural product price forecasting has become increasingly important. Hass avocados, as a high-value crop, exhibit complex price fluctuations influenced by factors such as seasonality, region, and weather. Traditional prediction models often struggle with highly nonlinear and dynamic data. To address this, we propose a hybrid deep learning model, TCN-MLP-Attention Architecture, combining Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) for sequential feature extraction, Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP) for nonlinear interactions, and an Attention mechanism for dynamic feature weighting. The dataset used covers over 50,000 records of Hass avocado sales across the U.S. from 2015 to 2018, including variables such as sales volume, average price, time, region, weather, and variety type, collected from point-of-sale systems and the Hass Avocado Board. After systematic preprocessing, including missing value imputation and feature normalization, the proposed model was trained and evaluated. Experimental results demonstrate that the TCN-MLP-Attention model achieves excellent predictive performance, with an RMSE of 1.23 and an MSE of 1.51, outperforming traditional methods. This research provides a scalable and effective approach for time series forecasting in agricultural markets and offers valuable insights for intelligent supply chain management and price strategy optimization.

价格预测深度学习农业经济时序模型

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。