用黑箱优化设计天气干预,提升防灾效率。
Comparative Analysis of Black-Box Optimization Methods for Weather Intervention Design
- 不依赖梯度信息,通过黑箱优化寻找最优干预方案。
- 贝叶斯优化在减少降雨量上表现最佳,尤其适合高维空间。
- 适用于需要少计算量的极端天气干预设计场景。
随着气候变化加剧天气灾害威胁,气象调控研究日益重要。其目标是通过最优时间、位置和强度的干预来降低灾害风险。然而,由于天气现象尺度大、复杂度高,优化过程面临两大挑战:一是难以获取精确梯度信息;二是数值天气预报(NWP)模型计算开销巨大,要求在最少函数评估下完成参数优化。为此,本研究提出一种基于黑箱优化的气象干预设计方法,无需梯度即可高效探索。该方法在两种控制场景中进行评估:一次性初值干预与基于模型预测控制的序列干预。进一步对四种代表性黑箱优化方法进行了比较,以总降雨量减少为指标。实验结果表明,贝叶斯优化在控制效果上优于其他方法,尤其在高维搜索空间中表现更优。研究结果表明,贝叶斯优化是气象干预计算的有效途径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As climate change increases the threat of weather-related disasters, research on weather control is gaining importance. The objective of weather control is to mitigate disaster risks by administering interventions with optimal timing, location, and intensity. However, the optimization process is highly challenging due to the vast scale and complexity of weather phenomena, which introduces two major challenges. First, obtaining accurate gradient information for optimization is difficult. In addition, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models demand enormous computational resources, necessitating parameter optimization with minimal function evaluations. To address these challenges, this study proposes a method for designing weather interventions based on black-box optimization, which enables efficient exploration without requiring gradient information. The proposed method is evaluated in two distinct control scenarios: one-shot initial value intervention and sequential intervention based on model predictive control. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted among four representative black-box optimization methods in terms of total rainfall reduction. Experimental results show that Bayesian optimization achieves higher control effectiveness than the others, particularly in high-dimensional search spaces. These findings suggest that Bayesian optimization is a highly effective approach for weather intervention computation.
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