用大模型+树搜索挖掘金融因子,又快又准还易懂。
Navigating the Alpha Jungle: An LLM-Powered MCTS Framework for Formulaic Factor Mining
- 大模型生成公式,树搜索高效探索
- 回测反馈引导搜索,提升预测准确率
- 防止公式重复,适合量化研究者
因子挖掘是量化投资中从复杂金融数据中识别预测信号的核心任务。传统方法依赖人工经验,而现有自动化方法如遗传编程或强化学习常面临搜索效率低或因子难以解释的问题。本文提出一种融合大语言模型(LLM)与蒙特卡洛树搜索(MCTS)的新框架,利用LLM的指令理解与推理能力,在MCTS驱动下迭代生成并优化符号化因子公式。关键创新在于以候选因子的金融回测结果提供丰富定量反馈,指导搜索方向,高效导航庞大搜索空间。此外,引入频繁子树避免机制,增强搜索多样性,防止公式同质化,进一步提升性能。在真实股票市场数据上的实验表明,该框架在预测准确性和交易表现上均优于现有方法,且生成的公式更易于人类理解,构建了一种更高效、有效的公式化因子挖掘范式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Alpha factor mining is pivotal in quantitative investment for identifying predictive signals from complex financial data. While traditional formulaic alpha mining relies on human expertise, contemporary automated methods, such as those based on genetic programming or reinforcement learning, often struggle with search inefficiency or yield alpha factors that are difficult to interpret. This paper introduces a novel framework that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to overcome these limitations. Our framework leverages the LLM's instruction-following and reasoning capability to iteratively generate and refine symbolic alpha formulas within an MCTS-driven exploration. A key innovation is the guidance of MCTS exploration by rich, quantitative feedback from financial backtesting of each candidate factor, enabling efficient navigation of the vast search space. Furthermore, a frequent subtree avoidance mechanism is introduced to enhance search diversity and prevent formulaic homogenization, further improving performance. Experimental results on real-world stock market data demonstrate that our LLM-based framework outperforms existing methods by mining alphas with superior predictive accuracy and trading performance. The resulting formulas are also more amenable to human interpretation, establishing a more effective and efficient paradigm for formulaic alpha mining.
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