arXiv:2505.11228cs.SIcs.LG2025-05

通过分类模型推断不可见传播动态,提升复杂网络中扩散参数估计精度。

Learning hidden cascades via classification

  • 利用可观察的中间特征训练分类器,反推隐藏传播过程
  • 在多种扩散场景下准确估计参数,优于贝叶斯与图神经网络方法
  • 适用于无法直接观测个体状态的真实传播场景,如内幕交易

社交网络中的传播动态通常假设个体状态(如是否知情或感染)完全可观测,但现实中此类状态常不可见,而对传播潜力判断至关重要。尽管最终状态隐藏,但感染症状等中间指标仍可观测,能有效表征底层扩散过程。本文提出一种面向部分可观测性的机器学习框架——分布分类法(Distribution Classification),利用分类器推断潜在传播机制。在多种扩散设定下,该框架相较于近似贝叶斯计算与基于图神经网络的基线方法持续表现更优,能准确估计参数且高效扩展至大规模网络。我们在合成网络上验证方法有效性,并拓展至真实世界内幕交易网络,证明其在无法直接观测个体状态时分析传播现象的能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The spreading dynamics in social networks are often studied under the assumption that individuals' statuses, whether informed or infected, are fully observable. However, in many real-world situations, such statuses remain unobservable, which is crucial for determining an individual's potential to further spread the infection. While final statuses are hidden, intermediate indicators such as symptoms of infection are observable and provide useful representations of the underlying diffusion process. We propose a partial observability-aware Machine Learning framework to learn the characteristics of the spreading model. We term the method Distribution Classification, which utilizes the power of classifiers to infer the underlying transmission dynamics. Through extensive benchmarking against Approximate Bayesian Computation and GNN-based baselines, our framework consistently outperforms these state-of-the-art methods, delivering accurate parameter estimates across diverse diffusion settings while scaling efficiently to large networks. We validate the method on synthetic networks and extend the study to a real-world insider trading network, demonstrating its effectiveness in analyzing spreading phenomena where direct observation of individual statuses is not possible.

传播模型分类器隐变量

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