通过频域监督与熵压缩,提升时间序列预测精度。
OLMA: One Loss for More Accurate Time Series Forecasting
- 引入频域联合监督,缓解神经网络的频率偏差问题。
- 实验证明离散傅里叶变换可降低多数场景下的标签熵。
- 新损失函数OLMA在多个数据集上显著提升预测准确率。
时间序列预测面临两大常被忽视的挑战:其一,标签固有噪声设定了理论误差下界,该下界与标签熵正相关;其二,神经网络在建模时间序列状态空间时存在频率偏差,对某些频段学习效果好,其他频段差,限制整体性能。为此,我们证明了一个定理:存在酉变换可降低多个相关高斯过程的边际熵,为降低误差下界提供指导。实验表明,离散傅里叶变换(DFT)在多数场景中能有效降熵。针对频率偏差,我们通过DFT和离散小波变换(DWT)在时序维度上联合引入频域监督,该策略通用性强,可无缝嵌入任意监督学习方法。进一步提出新型损失函数OLMA,利用通道与时序维度的频域变换增强预测能力。多数据集实验验证了OLMA在应对上述两挑战上的有效性,并带来显著精度提升。结果表明,熵与频率偏差视角为时间序列预测提供了新的可行研究方向。代码已开源:https://github.com/Yuyun1011/OLMA-One-Loss-for-More-Accurate-Time-Series-Forecasting。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting faces two important but often overlooked challenges. Firstly, the inherent random noise in the time series labels sets a theoretical lower bound for the forecasting error, which is positively correlated with the entropy of the labels. Secondly, neural networks exhibit a frequency bias when modeling the state-space of time series, that is, the model performs well in learning certain frequency bands but poorly in others, thus restricting the overall forecasting performance. To address the first challenge, we prove a theorem that there exists a unitary transformation that can reduce the marginal entropy of multiple correlated Gaussian processes, thereby providing guidance for reducing the lower bound of forecasting error. Furthermore, experiments confirm that Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) can reduce the entropy in the majority of scenarios. Correspondingly, to alleviate the frequency bias, we jointly introduce supervision in the frequency domain along the temporal dimension through DFT and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). This supervision-side strategy is highly general and can be seamlessly integrated into any supervised learning method. Moreover, we propose a novel loss function named OLMA, which utilizes the frequency domain transformation across both channel and temporal dimensions to enhance forecasting. Finally, the experimental results on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of OLMA in addressing the above two challenges and the resulting improvement in forecasting accuracy. The results also indicate that the perspectives of entropy and frequency bias provide a new and feasible research direction for time series forecasting. The code is available at: https://github.com/Yuyun1011/OLMA-One-Loss-for-More-Accurate-Time-Series-Forecasting.
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