arXiv:2505.11625cs.LGcs.AI2025-05被引 11

用最近邻检索提升多变量时间序列预测,无需训练即可利用全量历史数据。

Nearest Neighbor Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

  • 通过缓存数据中最近邻匹配实现跨全历史周期的模式复用
  • 在多个真实数据集上显著提升预测精度,优于现有图神经网络方法
  • 适合需要高可解释性与长周期依赖建模的工业级时间序列场景

多变量时间序列(MTS)预测在产业与学术领域有广泛应用。近年来,时空图神经网络(STGNNs)成为主流方法,但受限于计算复杂度,仅能使用有限长度的历史数据,且难以识别跨整个数据集的相似模式,尤其在变量间相关性稀疏、不连续分布时表现不佳。本文提出一种简单有效的k近邻多变量时间序列预测框架(kNN-MTS),通过在大型缓存序列库中基于模型表示进行最近邻检索实现预测,无需额外训练,可在测试阶段直接访问全量数据,显著提升模型表达能力,并有效提取跨越多变量的稀疏分布式相似模式。此外,设计了混合时空编码器(HSTEncoder),可同时捕捉长期时间依赖与短期时空依赖,为kNN-MTS提供更精准的表示。在多个真实世界数据集上的实验表明,kNN-MTS性能显著提升;定量分析也验证了其可解释性与高效性,展现出广阔应用前景,为高效利用大规模数据提供了新路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has a wide range of applications in both industry and academia. Recently, spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have gained popularity as MTS forecasting methods. However, current STGNNs can only use the finite length of MTS input data due to the computational complexity. Moreover, they lack the ability to identify similar patterns throughout the entire dataset and struggle with data that exhibit sparsely and discontinuously distributed correlations among variables over an extensive historical period, resulting in only marginal improvements. In this article, we introduce a simple yet effective k-nearest neighbor MTS forecasting ( kNN-MTS) framework, which forecasts with a nearest neighbor retrieval mechanism over a large datastore of cached series, using representations from the MTS model for similarity search. This approach requires no additional training and scales to give the MTS model direct access to the whole dataset at test time, resulting in a highly expressive model that consistently improves performance, and has the ability to extract sparse distributed but similar patterns spanning over multivariables from the entire dataset. Furthermore, a hybrid spatial-temporal encoder (HSTEncoder) is designed for kNN-MTS which can capture both long-term temporal and short-term spatial-temporal dependencies and is shown to provide accurate representation for kNN-MTSfor better forecasting. Experimental results on several real-world datasets show a significant improvement in the forecasting performance of kNN-MTS. The quantitative analysis also illustrates the interpretability and efficiency of kNN-MTS, showing better application prospects and opening up a new path for efficiently using the large dataset in MTS models.

时间序列最近邻预测

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