分析师报告中的模糊语言比数值预测更有预测力。
Vague Knowledge: Evidence from Analyst Reports
- 用语言表达模糊预期，而非数值预测。
- 语言越模糊，对预测误差的预测力越强。
- 适合关注主观判断与不确定性分析的研究者。
现实世界中人们常对未来的收益有模糊认知，量化既不实际也非所愿。我们认为，语言在传达主观预期方面扮演重要但少被关注的角色。实证发现，分析师报告中的文本语气能预测预测误差和后续数值预测的修正，且这种关联在语言更模糊、不确定性更高、分析师更忙碌时更强。总体而言，理论与证据表明，部分有用信息是模糊知晓的，只能通过语言传递。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
People in the real world often possess vague knowledge of future payoffs, for which quantification is not feasible or desirable. We argue that language, with differing ability to convey vague information, plays an important but less-known role in representing subjective expectations. Empirically, we find that in their reports, analysts include useful information in linguistic expressions but not numerical forecasts. Specifically, the textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors and subsequent revisions in numerical forecasts, and this relation becomes stronger when analyst's language is vaguer, when uncertainty is higher, and when analysts are busier. Overall, our theory and evidence suggest that some useful information is vaguely known and only communicated through language.
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