arXiv:2505.13299stat.MLcs.LG2025-05被引 2

在线估计分位数,保持单调性且支持多变量同时推断

Online simultaneous inference for quantiles via smoothed stochastic gradient descent

  • 用平滑梯度法实现分位数的在线估计,每步保持单调性
  • 提出统一的高维分位数推断框架,支持跨坐标与分位数水平的联合分析
  • 方法适用于流数据,可单次遍历完成,适合金融风险等实时场景

本文研究通过平滑随机梯度下降(SGD)算法估计分位数。通过将得分函数用与学习率相关的带宽进行平滑,得到的估计在每个迭代中对分位数水平均保持单调性,同时具备流数据所需的内存和计算效率。我们建立了非渐近尾概率界,其具有多阶段结构,为子指数型;对于平均化估计,进一步推导出在分位数水平和各坐标上一致的Bahadur表示,并基于最大布朗桥给出高斯逼近,允许维度 $p$ 指数级增长于样本量,从而实现跨坐标与分位数水平的同步推断。作为替代方案,我们提出一种在线乘子自助法,避免估计稀疏函数,保持单调性,单次遍历完成,渐近有效。将理论扩展至局部递归,获得设计点与分位数水平上一致的非参数条件分位数估计及其置信带。模拟验证了有限样本覆盖精度,方法应用于条件风险价值曲线的构建。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper considers the estimation of quantiles via a smoothed version of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. By smoothing the score function with a bandwidth tied to the learning rate, we obtain estimates that are monotone in the quantile level at every iteration, while retaining the memory and computational efficiency required for streaming data. We establish non-asymptotic tail probability bounds for the smoothed estimate with and without Polyak-Ruppert averaging, which are sub-exponential with a multi-regime structure. For the averaged estimate we further derive a Bahadur representation that is uniform in the quantile level and across coordinates, and a resulting Gaussian approximation by the maximum of Brownian bridges, with the dimension $p$ allowed to grow exponentially in the sample size. This yields simultaneous inference across coordinates and quantile levels. As an alternative that avoids estimating the sparsity function, we propose an online multiplier bootstrap that preserves monotonicity, runs in a single pass and is asymptotically valid. Extending the theory to a localized recursion, we obtain online nonparametric conditional quantile estimates with uniform bands over design points and quantile levels. Simulations confirm accurate finite-sample coverage, and we illustrate the method on conditional value-at-risk curves.

分位数估计在线学习高维推断流数据

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。