用生成模型合成数据,让小样本预测更精准可靠。
Synthetic-Powered Predictive Inference
- 用真实与合成数据的得分映射,提升校准效率。
- 在数据少时,预测集缩小30%以上,仍保证覆盖率。
- 适合数据稀缺场景,如医疗、罕见事件建模。
置信预测是一种具有分布无关、有限样本保障的预测推断框架,但在校准数据稀缺时常产生信息量低的预测集。本文提出合成驱动的预测推断(SPI),通过引入生成模型生成的合成数据来提升样本效率。核心是得分运输器:一种经验分位数映射,将可信真实数据与合成数据的非符合性得分对齐。通过将得分运输器巧妙整合到校准流程中,SPI在不假设真实与合成数据分布的前提下,仍可保证有限样本覆盖性。当得分分布对齐良好时,相比标准置信预测,SPI显著生成更紧凑、更具信息量的预测集。在图像分类(以扩散模型生成图像增广)和表格回归任务中的实验表明,在数据稀缺场景下预测效率明显提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.
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