arXiv:2505.13558econ.EMcs.LG2025-05被引 3

针对客户购买行为的不均衡性,提出聚类+注意力GRU模型提升复购预测准确率。

CATS: Clustering-Aggregated and Time Series for Business Customer Purchase Intention Prediction

  • 先聚类客户再用GRU+注意力分析时序行为
  • 分段训练缓解头部尾部客户分布不均问题
  • 适用于电商、零售等需精准预测复购的场景

准确预测客户购买意向对商业策略成功至关重要。现有研究多关注客户未来可能购买的具体产品类型,却忽视了是否会发生复购这一关键因素。预测下一次购买行为属于经典的时间序列预测任务,但在真实购买行为中,客户群体通常呈现显著不平衡——大量偶尔购买者与少量忠诚客户并存,这种头尾分布使传统时间序列方法面临局限。为此,本文提出统一的聚类与注意力机制GRU模型(CAGRU),利用多模态数据进行客户购买意向预测。框架首先基于客户特征进行画像并聚类,划分出具有相似特征的客户群;随后通过GRU神经网络提取各客户群的时间序列特征,并引入注意力机制捕捉序列位置的重要性。此外,为缓解客户群体的头尾分布问题,采用分段独立训练策略,更精准地捕捉不同群体间的行为差异及同一群体内客户的共性。构建了四个数据集,通过大量实验验证了所提CAGRU方法的优越性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately predicting customers' purchase intentions is critical to the success of a business strategy. Current researches mainly focus on analyzing the specific types of products that customers are likely to purchase in the future, little attention has been paid to the critical factor of whether customers will engage in repurchase behavior. Predicting whether a customer will make the next purchase is a classic time series forecasting task. However, in real-world purchasing behavior, customer groups typically exhibit imbalance - i.e., there are a large number of occasional buyers and a small number of loyal customers. This head-to-tail distribution makes traditional time series forecasting methods face certain limitations when dealing with such problems. To address the above challenges, this paper proposes a unified Clustering and Attention mechanism GRU model (CAGRU) that leverages multi-modal data for customer purchase intention prediction. The framework first performs customer profiling with respect to the customer characteristics and clusters the customers to delineate the different customer clusters that contain similar features. Then, the time series features of different customer clusters are extracted by GRU neural network and an attention mechanism is introduced to capture the significance of sequence locations. Furthermore, to mitigate the head-to-tail distribution of customer segments, we train the model separately for each customer segment, to adapt and capture more accurately the differences in behavioral characteristics between different customer segments, as well as the similar characteristics of the customers within the same customer segment. We constructed four datasets and conducted extensive experiments to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed CAGRU approach.

客户预测时序建模聚类分析

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