为火星探测设计更安全的路径规划,考虑地形不确定性与风险偏好。
Risk-Averse Traversal of Graphs with Stochastic and Correlated Edge Costs for Safe Global Planetary Mobility
- 将行星路径规划建模为风险规避的加拿大旅行者问题,用CVaR优化策略。
- 提出新算法找到精确最优策略,在火星真实地形上验证效果显著。
- 支持相关区域信息共享,可主动探索以降低整体风险,适合航天规划者。
在机器人行星表面探索中,战略移动规划涉及在轨道图上寻找远距离候选路线,并识别具有不确定通行性的路段。专家操作员基于实际导航难度制定安全、自适应的行驶计划。本文将此挑战形式化为一种针对全球行星移动性的新型风险规避型加拿大旅行者问题(CTP),目标是寻找最小化条件风险价值(CVaR)准则的行驶策略,该指标具有直观的风险衡量意义。我们提出一种新颖的搜索算法,可找到精确的CVaR最优策略。该方法利用成熟的最优AND-OR搜索技术,将其拓展至风险规避领域。通过模拟长距离行星表面穿越进行验证,采用真实火星轨道图构建问题实例,并使用地形图表示不确定区域的通行概率。结果表明,不同风险厌恶水平下会生成不同的自适应决策方案。此外,该模型可建模环境中相似区域间的通行性相关性;实验表明,信息探寻式绕行能有效缓解风险。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In robotic planetary surface exploration, strategic mobility planning is an important task that involves finding candidate long-distance routes on orbital maps and identifying segments with uncertain traversability. Then, expert human operators establish safe, adaptive traverse plans based on the actual navigation difficulties encountered in these uncertain areas. In this paper, we formalize this challenge as a new, risk-averse variant of the Canadian Traveller Problem (CTP) tailored to global planetary mobility. The objective is to find a traverse policy minimizing a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criterion, which is a risk measure with an intuitive interpretation. We propose a novel search algorithm that finds exact CVaR-optimal policies. Our approach leverages well-established optimal AND-OR search techniques intended for (risk-agnostic) expectation minimization and extends these methods to the risk-averse domain. We validate our approach through simulated long-distance planetary surface traverses; we employ real orbital maps of the Martian surface to construct problem instances and use terrain maps to express traversal probabilities in uncertain regions. Our results illustrate different adaptive decision-making schemes depending on the level of risk aversion. Additionally, our problem setup allows accounting for traversability correlations between similar areas of the environment. In such a case, we empirically demonstrate how information-seeking detours can mitigate risk.
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