让预测集大小可控,同时保证准确率,适合医疗等对结果简洁性要求高的场景。
Backward Conformal Prediction
- 根据观测数据动态调整置信水平,实现预测集大小的灵活控制
- 通过留一法估计误差率,确保理论保证在实际中可计算
- 特别适合医疗诊断等需小而准预测集的应用
我们提出一种新的后向共形预测方法,可在保证共形覆盖的前提下,灵活控制预测集大小。与标准共形预测固定覆盖水平、允许集合大小浮动不同,本方法基于观测数据定义预测集大小的变化规则,并相应调整覆盖水平。该方法建立在两项关键基础上:(i) Gauthier 等人 [2025] 关于使用 e 值实现事后有效性的最新成果,可保证边际覆盖概率满足 $\mathbb{P}(Y_{\rm test} \in \hat C_n^{\tildeα}(X_{\rm test})) \ge 1 - \mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$,误差在首阶泰勒近似内;(ii) 提出一种新颖的留一法估计器 $\hatα^{\rm LOO}$,用于估计边际误覆盖率 $\mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$,使理论保证在实践中仍可计算。该方法在预测集过大不切实际的应用(如医学诊断)中尤为有用。我们提供了理论证明和实证证据,表明该方法能维持可计算的覆盖保证,同时确保预测集大小可解释且受控。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and allows the conformal set size to vary, our approach defines a rule that constrains how prediction set sizes behave based on the observed data, and adapts the coverage level accordingly. Our method builds on two key foundations: (i) recent results by Gauthier et al. [2025] on post-hoc validity using e-values, which ensure marginal coverage of the form $\mathbb{P}(Y_{\rm test} \in \hat C_n^{\tildeα}(X_{\rm test})) \ge 1 - \mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$ up to a first-order Taylor approximation for any data-dependent miscoverage $\tildeα$, and (ii) a novel leave-one-out estimator $\hatα^{\rm LOO}$ of the marginal miscoverage $\mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$ based on the calibration set, ensuring that the theoretical guarantees remain computable in practice. This approach is particularly useful in applications where large prediction sets are impractical such as medical diagnosis. We provide theoretical results and empirical evidence supporting the validity of our method, demonstrating that it maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。