arXiv:2505.14122cs.LG2025-05被引 16

用机器学习分析伊朗火险,发现人为因素比气候影响更大

Assessing wildfire susceptibility in Iran: Leveraging machine learning for geospatial analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors

  • 结合遥感与机器学习,融合气候与人类活动数据
  • 识别出中央扎格罗斯等高风险区,尤其在暖季影响显著
  • 适合关注灾害预测与国土安全的决策者参考

本研究探讨伊朗野火风险的多重影响因素,重点关注气候条件与人类活动的交互作用。利用先进的遥感技术、地理信息系统(GIS)处理方法(如云计算)和机器学习算法,分析气候参数、地形特征及人类相关因素对伊朗野火易发性评估与预测的影响。基于数据采样策略构建了多种情景进行分析。结果表明,土壤湿度、温度和湿度等气候要素显著影响野火易发性,而人口密度和靠近输电线路等人因因素也起关键作用。此外,分别评估了各参数在温暖季与寒冷季的影响,结果显示,在季节性分析中,人因因素的影响比气候变量更为突出。本研究通过先进机器学习分类器生成高分辨率野火易发性地图,识别出中央扎格罗斯地区、东北部霍尔马斯安森林及北部阿拉斯巴兰森林为高风险区域,凸显制定有效火灾管理策略的紧迫性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing wildfire risk in Iran, focusing on the interplay between climatic conditions and human activities. Utilizing advanced remote sensing, geospatial information system (GIS) processing techniques such as cloud computing, and machine learning algorithms, this research analyzed the impact of climatic parameters, topographic features, and human-related factors on wildfire susceptibility assessment and prediction in Iran. Multiple scenarios were developed for this purpose based on the data sampling strategy. The findings revealed that climatic elements such as soil moisture, temperature, and humidity significantly contribute to wildfire susceptibility, while human activities-particularly population density and proximity to powerlines-also played a crucial role. Furthermore, the seasonal impact of each parameter was separately assessed during warm and cold seasons. The results indicated that human-related factors, rather than climatic variables, had a more prominent influence during the seasonal analyses. This research provided new insights into wildfire dynamics in Iran by generating high-resolution wildfire susceptibility maps using advanced machine learning classifiers. The generated maps identified high risk areas, particularly in the central Zagros region, the northeastern Hyrcanian Forest, and the northern Arasbaran forest, highlighting the urgent need for effective fire management strategies.

野火预测机器学习地理信息风险评估

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