提出新方法OBPV，更精准评估足球进攻转换起点的空间价值。
Space evaluation at the starting point of soccer transitions
- 基于场地区域价值与传球分布密度，构建空间评估模型。
- 在西甲2023/24赛季数据上验证，能有效识别反击中的高效空间。
- 适合研究战术分析、球队空间利用差异的体育数据学者。
足球比赛在球场上进行，空间的有效利用至关重要。在双方控球权转换的过渡阶段，决策愈发关键，但关于此阶段空间评估的研究仍有限。现有方法如OBSO（非持球得分机会）依赖进球概率，难以评估远离球门的区域，而这类区域正是过渡发生的起点。本文提出新型空间评估方法OBPV，通过引入场地区域价值模型全面评估全场地空间，并结合过渡核模型，利用传球分布的核密度估计反映位置特异性。基于西甲2023/24赛季追踪与事件数据的实验表明，OBPV可有效识别反击过程中的高效空间利用，并揭示不同球队在正负过渡后空间使用上的特征差异。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Soccer is a sport played on a pitch where effective use of space is crucial. Decision-making during transitions, when possession switches between teams, has been increasingly important, but research on space evaluation in these moments has been limited. Recent space evaluation methods such as OBSO (Off-Ball Scoring Opportunity) use scoring probability, so it is not well-suited for assessing areas far from the goal, where transitions typically occur. In this paper, we propose OBPV (Off-Ball Positioning Value) to evaluate space across the pitch, including the starting points of transitions. OBPV extends OBSO by introducing the field value model, which evaluates the entire pitch, and by employing the transition kernel model, which reflects positional specificity through kernel density estimation of pass distributions. Experiments using La Liga 2023/24 season tracking and event data show that OBPV highlights effective space utilization during counter-attacks and reveals team-specific characteristics in how the teams utilize space after positive and negative transitions.
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