arXiv:2505.14803cs.LGcs.AI2025-05KDD被引 4

为生存分析模型提供无需修改的不确定性量化方法,提升临床决策可信度。

SurvUnc: A Meta-Model Based Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Survival Analysis

  • 基于锚点学习,利用排序性能优化元模型以估计不确定性。
  • 在4个数据集、5种模型上验证,显著提升误判检测与域外样本识别能力。
  • 模型无关设计,适用于任何生存模型,适合医疗等高风险场景使用。

生存分析从删失数据中估算事件随时间发生的概率,在医疗和风险评估等高风险领域至关重要。尽管生存模型不断进步,其预测不确定性的量化仍缺乏有效方法,限制了可解释性与可信度。为此,本文提出SurvUnc——一种基于元模型的后处理不确定性量化框架。该框架采用锚点学习策略,将一致性排序知识融入元模型优化,有效估计不确定性。其模型无关特性确保兼容任意生存模型,无需修改架构或访问内部参数。我们设计了针对此问题的综合评估流程,在四个公开基准数据集及五种代表性生存模型上进行了广泛实验,结果表明SurvUnc在选择性预测、误判检测和域外检测等多种场景下均表现优异,显著增强了模型的可解释性与可靠性,为现实应用中的可信生存预测提供了支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Survival analysis, which estimates the probability of event occurrence over time from censored data, is fundamental in numerous real-world applications, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and risk assessment. Despite advances in numerous survival models, quantifying the uncertainty of predictions from these models remains underexplored and challenging. The lack of reliable uncertainty quantification limits the interpretability and trustworthiness of survival models, hindering their adoption in clinical decision-making and other sensitive applications. To bridge this gap, in this work, we introduce SurvUnc, a novel meta-model based framework for post-hoc uncertainty quantification for survival models. SurvUnc introduces an anchor-based learning strategy that integrates concordance knowledge into meta-model optimization, leveraging pairwise ranking performance to estimate uncertainty effectively. Notably, our framework is model-agnostic, ensuring compatibility with any survival model without requiring modifications to its architecture or access to its internal parameters. Especially, we design a comprehensive evaluation pipeline tailored to this critical yet overlooked problem. Through extensive experiments on four publicly available benchmarking datasets and five representative survival models, we demonstrate the superiority of SurvUnc across multiple evaluation scenarios, including selective prediction, misprediction detection, and out-of-domain detection. Our results highlight the effectiveness of SurvUnc in enhancing model interpretability and reliability, paving the way for more trustworthy survival predictions in real-world applications.

生存分析不确定性量化医疗AI

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