arXiv:2505.14935cs.RO2025-05被引 1

用主成分分析降低随机系统可达性分析的保守性,提升效率与精度。

PCA-DDReach: Efficient Statistical Reachability Analysis of Stochastic Dynamical Systems via Principal Component Analysis

  • 结合主成分分析与置信推断,从轨迹数据中学习动态模型。
  • 在12维四旋翼和27维动力传动系统上验证,显著降低保守性。
  • 适合需高精度安全分析的复杂物理系统开发者使用。

本文提出一种可扩展的数据驱动算法,用于高效解决随机动力系统的可达性分析难题。传统方法依赖参数化物理模型,但复杂网络物理系统(CPS)因复杂性、不确定性与变异性,常难以建模,多被视为黑箱。替代方案是利用从高保真仿真或真实系统中采样的轨迹数据,结合机器学习构建近似动态模型。然而,这些模型可能不准确,亟需统计工具量化误差。近年研究引入置信推断(CI)等不确定性量化技术,可提供具有理论保证的概率可达集。尤其在训练与部署时轨迹分布不一致的情况下仍有效。但此类情况通常导致更保守的保证,实际应用中不可取。为此,本文提出将置信推断与主成分分析(PCA)结合的新方法,有效降低保守性并提升可扩展性。在多个案例研究中验证了该方法的有效性,包括12维四旋翼系统与27维混合动力传动系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study presents a scalable data-driven algorithm designed to efficiently address the challenging problem of reachability analysis. Analysis of cyber-physical systems (CPS) relies typically on parametric physical models of dynamical systems. However, identifying parametric physical models for complex CPS is challenging due to their complexity, uncertainty, and variability, often rendering them as black-box oracles. As an alternative, one can treat these complex systems as black-box models and use trajectory data sampled from the system (e.g., from high-fidelity simulators or the real system) along with machine learning techniques to learn models that approximate the underlying dynamics. However, these machine learning models can be inaccurate, highlighting the need for statistical tools to quantify errors. Recent advancements in the field include the incorporation of statistical uncertainty quantification tools such as conformal inference (CI) that can provide probabilistic reachable sets with provable guarantees. Recent work has even highlighted the ability of these tools to address the case where the distribution of trajectories sampled during training time are different from the distribution of trajectories encountered during deployment time. However, accounting for such distribution shifts typically results in more conservative guarantees. This is undesirable in practice and motivates us to present techniques that can reduce conservatism. Here, we propose a new approach that reduces conservatism and improves scalability by combining conformal inference with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We show the effectiveness of our technique on various case studies, including a 12-dimensional quadcopter and a 27-dimensional hybrid system known as the powertrain.

可达性分析主成分分析置信推断

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