arXiv:2505.16319cs.LG2025-05被引 7

首个标注缺货的生鲜零售需求数据集,助力精准预测被遮蔽的真实需求。

FreshRetailNet-50K: A Stockout-Annotated Censored Demand Dataset for Latent Demand Recovery and Forecasting in Fresh Retail

  • 基于小时级销售与缺货标注,重建被遮蔽的需求
  • 使预测误差降低2.73%,系统性低估从7.37%趋近于零
  • 适合研究生鲜库存优化与因果零售分析的研究者

准确的需求估计对易腐商品的零售运营至关重要,但缺货期间的销售数据被截断,导致未观测需求引发系统性偏差。现有数据集缺乏足够时间分辨率和缺货标注。为此,我们推出FreshRetailNet-50K,首个大规模截断需求估算基准数据集,包含来自18个主要城市898家门店的50,000条商品-门店时序数据,涵盖863种易腐商品,每条数据均标注精确的缺货事件。该数据集独有的小时级库存状态记录,结合促销折扣、降雨量、时间特征等丰富上下文变量,支持超越现有方法的研究。我们展示两阶段建模应用:首先利用精准小时标注重构缺货期间的潜在需求;其次基于恢复的需求训练更鲁棒的预测模型。实验表明,该方法预测精度提升2.73%,系统性需求低估从7.37%降至接近零。凭借前所未有的时间粒度与真实世界信息,FreshRetailNet-50K为需求填补、易腐品库存优化与因果零售分析开辟新方向。数据(https://huggingface.co/datasets/Dingdong-Inc/FreshRetailNet-50K)与代码(https://github.com/Dingdong-Inc/frn-50k-baseline)已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate demand estimation is critical for the retail business in guiding the inventory and pricing policies of perishable products. However, it faces fundamental challenges from censored sales data during stockouts, where unobserved demand creates systemic policy biases. Existing datasets lack the temporal resolution and annotations needed to address this censoring effect. To fill this gap, we present FreshRetailNet-50K, the first large-scale benchmark for censored demand estimation. It comprises 50,000 store-product time series of detailed hourly sales data from 898 stores in 18 major cities, encompassing 863 perishable SKUs meticulously annotated for stockout events. The hourly stock status records unique to this dataset, combined with rich contextual covariates, including promotional discounts, precipitation, and temporal features, enable innovative research beyond existing solutions. We demonstrate one such use case of two-stage demand modeling: first, we reconstruct the latent demand during stockouts using precise hourly annotations. We then leverage the recovered demand to train robust demand forecasting models in the second stage. Experimental results show that this approach achieves a 2.73% improvement in prediction accuracy while reducing the systematic demand underestimation from 7.37% to near-zero bias. With unprecedented temporal granularity and comprehensive real-world information, FreshRetailNet-50K opens new research directions in demand imputation, perishable inventory optimization, and causal retail analytics. The unique annotation quality and scale of the dataset address long-standing limitations in retail AI, providing immediate solutions and a platform for future methodological innovation. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/Dingdong-Inc/FreshRetailNet-50K) and code (https://github.com/Dingdong-Inc/frn-50k-baseline}) are openly released.

需求预测生鲜零售缺货标注时序数据

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