通过整合多股票趋势,提升股价预测准确率。
From Local Patterns to Global Understanding: Cross-Stock Trend Integration for Enhanced Predictive Modeling
- 借鉴联邦学习思想,融合个股历史数据构建全局模型。
- 在多个股票上测试,显著优于传统单股票预测方法。
- 适合需要跨市场分析的量化交易与金融研究者。
股价预测是金融预测的关键领域,传统方法通常基于单一股票的历史价格数据训练模型。尽管这些模型能有效捕捉个股特征,却未能利用股票间潜在的趋势相关性,限制了预测性能。为解决此问题,本文提出一种新方法——跨股票趋势整合(CSTI),将局部模式融合为全局理解。该策略受联邦学习启发,允许在不共享原始数据的前提下,通过分布式训练并迭代合并各股票模型,形成统一的全局模型,再在特定股票上微调以保留本地特征。该方法支持并行训练,高效利用计算资源,减少训练时间。大量实验表明,所提方法超越基准模型,显著提升现有先进方法的预测能力。结果验证了跨股票趋势整合在推动股价预测中的有效性,为传统单股票学习提供了有力替代方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Stock price prediction is a critical area of financial forecasting, traditionally approached by training models using the historical price data of individual stocks. While these models effectively capture single-stock patterns, they fail to leverage potential correlations among stock trends, which could improve predictive performance. Current single-stock learning methods are thus limited in their ability to provide a broader understanding of price dynamics across multiple stocks. To address this, we propose a novel method that merges local patterns into a global understanding through cross-stock pattern integration. Our strategy is inspired by Federated Learning (FL), a paradigm designed for decentralized model training. FL enables collaborative learning across distributed datasets without sharing raw data, facilitating the aggregation of global insights while preserving data privacy. In our adaptation, we train models on individual stock data and iteratively merge them to create a unified global model. This global model is subsequently fine-tuned on specific stock data to retain local relevance. The proposed strategy enables parallel training of individual stock models, facilitating efficient utilization of computational resources and reducing overall training time. We conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed method, demonstrating that it outperforms benchmark models and enhances the predictive capabilities of state-of-the-art approaches. Our results highlight the efficacy of Cross-Stock Trend Integration (CSTI) in advancing stock price prediction, offering a robust alternative to traditional single-stock learning methodologies.
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